Iran's backing of Hezbollah has included a public show of solidarity, such as sending a medical mission to Lebanon this week. However, behind the scenes, Iran continues its covert operations, notably smuggling weapons to Hezbollah to maintain its influence and military strength in the region according to a Jerusalem post report.
In a recent phone call with an Iranian official, Araghchi praised the Lebanese resistance fighters for their stand against Israeli forces. His comments underline Iran's long-standing support for Hezbollah and its broader regional influence, particularly its efforts to counter what it perceives as Israeli aggression. The ceasefire could mark a turning point for Iran, as it attempts to consolidate its power and influence over Hezbollah while balancing its regional interests.
The ceasefire’s implications are significant, particularly given Iran’s ongoing attempt to integrate Hezbollah into the larger regional conflict, especially in relation to Gaza. After the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Iran tried to draw Hezbollah into the fight against Israel. While Hezbollah was already sympathetic to Hamas, it is believed not to have been fully informed of the attack's timing, which may have forced the group to take part in the conflict earlier than anticipated. Hezbollah's involvement, particularly in the northern border area, shifted the dynamics of the conflict, leading to an escalation with Israel.
Iran’s focus, however, may shift depending on the outcome of the ceasefire. With a potential 60-day period of relative calm, Iran will have time to assess its next moves. The timing coincides with the lead-up to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. This window could be critical for Iran, offering an opportunity to focus on its nuclear program or push its proxies in Iraq, Syria, or Lebanon to escalate their attacks against Israeli targets, such as the Golan Heights.
As Iran faces its own strategic crossroads, it must decide whether to pursue nuclear advancements or intensify proxy warfare against Israel. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the direction Iran will take, and how it will respond to the ceasefire dynamics in Lebanon.