The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah marks a fragile peace, but it also brings significant risks of future conflict. From October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel's border villages, until August 25, 2024, the war largely remained a stalemate. A Jerusalem post article reported that Israel has gained the upper hand since mid-September, shifting from a deadlock to nearly achieving a decisive victory.
Despite these successes, the terms of the ceasefire and Hezbollah's continued military capabilities suggest that another war with Lebanon may be inevitable. While Israel has weakened Hezbollah by targeting its leadership and weapons stockpiles, the group's substantial missile arsenal and continued threat to northern Israel highlight the ongoing risks.
From October to December 2023, the conflict was balanced. But by 2024, Israel had significantly outpaced Hezbollah in casualties. Israel's military actions forced evacuations of both Israeli and Lebanese civilians, with Hezbollah showing resilience in the face of Israeli strikes. Despite this, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, tolerated the ongoing Israeli military actions, and Israel remained frustrated by the rocket fire.
In August 2024, Hezbollah attempted a large-scale attack with over 1,000 rockets aimed at multiple Israeli military targets. The IDF preemptively struck, neutralizing the threat and signaling a shift in Israel's approach. By September and into October, Israel had successfully targeted Hezbollah's leadership and key assets, giving it leverage to demand more favorable terms for the ceasefire than those agreed upon after the 2006 Lebanon War.
However, even with these military achievements, Hezbollah retains significant missile capabilities and the ability to strike at will. Despite heavy Israeli casualties among Hezbollah’s leadership, the group still possesses tens of thousands of rockets, and its extensive network of fighters and supporters in southern Lebanon remains largely intact.
Israel's military position is stronger than it was in 2006, but it faces limitations in compelling Hezbollah's total disarmament or neutralizing its political influence in Lebanon. The lack of a security zone and the inability to act unilaterally against Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire means that the ceasefire deal is inherently unstable.
Questions about the effectiveness of future Israeli actions, such as the identification of Hezbollah fighters among civilians, further complicate the long-term prospects for peace. Additionally, the side agreement with the U.S. could lead to future friction, particularly as political dynamics change.
In the coming years, Israel will need to remain vigilant, focusing on Hezbollah’s movements and being ready to respond if the ceasefire is violated. However, it’s uncertain whether Israel can sustain the pressure over the long term, given the group’s deep resources and strategic patience. If Hezbollah regains strength, another conflict could erupt in the near future.
In conclusion, while this ceasefire is an improvement over past agreements, it does not eliminate the risk of future war, and the conditions set today may lead to another round of violence within a few years.
