In a significant shift in its diplomatic tone, Iran is adopting a more moderate stance toward the West and Israel, according to senior Iranian officials who spoke with The New York Times. This strategic pivot comes in response to Trump's election victory and recent military setbacks in Lebanon.
Key Developments:
- Iran directed Hezbollah to pursue ceasefire negotiations in mid-November
- Iranian UN ambassador held undisclosed meeting with Elon Musk, Trump's unofficial envoy
- Tehran scheduled crucial nuclear talks with European representatives in Geneva
Multiple Factors Drive Policy Shift
The change in Iran's diplomatic approach stems from several converging pressures, according to five Iranian officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards who spoke to the Times.
Trump Factor
Iranian leadership fears the return of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, with particular concern about his newly appointed cabinet members known for their pro-Israel stance and tough position on Iran. Before the election, Tehran took the unusual step of signaling it had no intention of targeting Trump, distancing itself from previous assassination attempts.
Military Setbacks
Recent Israeli operations have dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy force in Lebanon, weakening Tehran's strategic position in the region. Additionally, Iran temporarily suspended planned retaliatory strikes against Israel following a major attack on Iranian air defenses.
Economic Pressures
The Iranian currency has plummeted to historic lows, and resource shortages loom as winter approaches, adding domestic pressure for policy changes.
Diplomatic Opening?
Several Iranian officials publicly expressed willingness to engage with the Trump administration on nuclear issues, marking a departure from their previous stance. However, Iran's foreign minister maintained that Tehran reserves the right to respond to recent Israeli airstrikes while considering regional developments.
A rare admission came from the director of Iran's Baqir al-Uloom University, who acknowledged that Iran has underestimated Israel's military capabilities, suggesting a more realistic assessment of regional power dynamics is emerging in Tehran.
Kikar Shabbat contributed to this article.