On October 7, 2023, Hamas, after years of organizing, training and arming itself, was apparently the strongest in the organization's history. Today, exactly one year after that day, Hamas is the closest to dissolution in history, what does Hamas look like then compared to today.
It is customary to say that Hezbollah is probably the most powerful terrorist organization in the world, this statement comes from the huge missile arsenal that was estimated at over 100 thousand missiles of various types (before the fighting with Israel), and also as a result of its deep influence on Lebanon through a linked political arm, and thanks to the close support of its patron of the organization, the Iranian regime.
Hamas was not attached to terrifying catalogs like Hezbollah. But only if not for the notorious conception, an objective analysis would have shown that despite its numerically low strength, in October 2023 Hamas was probably the most experienced terrorist organization in the world, and the most fortified in the world, today it really is no longer like that.
Hamas of 2023:
Rockets and missiles:
According to international estimates, and the estimates of Israeli organizations on the eve of the start of the campaign against Israel in October 2023, Hamas possessed a rocket arsenal of between 15,000 and 17,000 missiles and rockets of various types and ranges. According to the IDF's assessment over the years, Hamas has in recent years possessed thousands of very short-range rockets (up to about 3 km) over 5,000 short-range rockets (15-20 km) about 2,000 medium-range rockets ( up to 45 km) and hundreds of long-range missiles (100-200 km)
Launch capabilities:
Despite the meager arsenal of missiles and rockets compared to Hezbollah, the Hamas of 2023 was apparently the most experienced organization in the world in firing a steep trajectory, for about two decades since the disengagement, Hamas has gained knowledge and experience from launching hundreds and thousands of missiles into Israel every year. And despite its numerically weak strength against Hezbollah, Hamas developed launch capabilities that served as a force multiplier.
Over the years, Hamas has become an expert in coordinated missile strikes, which included simultaneous launches of hundreds of rockets at one moment. These methods were developed in order to stun the interception capabilities of the Iron Dome, and reached their peak on the morning of the 7th when Hamas launched at the same time at 06:29 close to 3,000 rockets and missiles across the entire State of Israel as part of the opening process of the massacre.
Manpower:
Intelligence bodies and international organizations have assessed the strength of Hamas over the years, with varying results, but the consensus pointed to tens of thousands of terrorists and terrorist operatives. International bodies have indicated the possibility that the strength of Hamas is between 20,000-40,000 terrorists.
Israel estimated the strength of Hamas on the eve of the invasion of Gaza and the beginning of the ground maneuver about a year ago, and counted 30,000 terrorists as the military arm of Hamas, when about 3,500 of them invaded Israel on the morning of the 7th and were mostly eliminated after the events of the massacre.
According to estimates, close to a thousand of them from those terrorists were sent outside the Strip to Iran, Syria, Pakistan and other countries where they received military training, with which they returned and trained the terrorists inside the Strip.
Fortifications and infrastructure:
During the years of its rule, Hamas ruled Gaza absolutely and did as it pleased. Hamas built every infrastructure and every structure in the Gaza Strip as part of the infrastructure of its terrorist army. Before entering the Strip last year, most bodies in the world estimated that Hamas possessed up to 200 km of underground infrastructure in the Strip. After the ground entry, these estimates were updated every day, while today the US Department of Defense estimates that Hamas possessed at least close to 600 km "m of tunnels under the land of the Strip.
Hamas also possessed incredibly developed infrastructure in various parts of the organization, according to information revealed by the IDF during the maneuver, Hamas smuggled (apparently during the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt during the Arab Spring) into the Strip precise production tools, advanced computerized metal engraving machines, means of communication professionals and technological digging devices. These measures allowed the organization to develop massively in its power during the last decade in a series of different directions.
Tunnels that were once dug by hand by clans of Khan Yunis are now dug by advanced mining machines, management and control communication systems have brought Hamas into the 21st century, and in addition, Hamas has become a self-producer of weapons.
Hamas of 2024:
Exactly one year after it launched a war against Israel by brutally and cowardly massacring civilians, families, children, the elderly and the helpless, today's Hamas is a pale shadow of the enemy that once stood before us.
Rockets and launch capabilities:
According to data published on the occasion of October 7, 2024 by the IDF, at the beginning of the war Hamas launched over 13,000 rockets and missiles from the arsenal it possessed at the beginning of the war, over 75% of the original amount it possessed. In addition, they were destroyed by the Air Force and ground forces many hundreds of additional rockets found during operational activity.
While the Hamas of 2023 managed to launch barrages of hundreds or thousands of rockets and missiles as a matter of routine, the Hamas of 2024 barely manages to launch single rockets towards Israeli territory every few weeks, or even months when it comes to long-range launches.
Manpower:
On the eve of the invasion of Gaza and the beginning of the ground maneuver about a year ago, the IDF estimated that the strength of Hamas in the Gaza Strip was about 30,000 terrorists active militarily in the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF data that was allowed to be published this morning, during the IDF's activity in the Gaza Strip, at least "with a high probability" were eliminated About 15,000 terrorists, with a "medium probability" of the elimination of about 3,000 more.
According to the estimate of those killed only, which is also consistent with international estimates such as the US Department of Defense which estimated the elimination of similar numbers that at least half of Hamas's military strength in the Gaza Strip was directly eliminated in battle. In addition to this, it was reported throughout the months of fighting that thousands more were wounded in the ranks of Hamas, in addition to this it was often reported about terrorists who abandoned the ranks of the organization and even tried to escape from the Strip.
As a fighting force, the IDF estimated that Hamas has a force structure of 24 active battalions throughout the Strip, according to the security establishment, so far at least 23 of them have been completely neutralized and destroyed, and the overwhelming majority of Hamas as a military arm has been eliminated.
Fortifications and infrastructure:
Since the beginning of the maneuver, IDF soldiers have located kilometers upon kilometers of tunnels, shafts and underground infrastructure. Hundreds of kilometers of tunnels have been destroyed or sealed and during the maneuver the IDF located most of the organization's advanced production infrastructure.
During the maneuver, the forces located advanced communication systems, huge stockpiles of IDF, advanced production sites for rockets and IDF in addition to stockpiles of money, ammunition and critical equipment for the organization's activities and destroyed or confiscated them immediately.
In conclusion, the Hamas of today is not the Hamas of a year ago. It is true, Hamas is still not completely eradicated, it still exists and there is still work to be done, but it is also possible to look back over this difficult year that began on the blackest Shabbat Israel has ever known and breathe a little relief.
Hamas has lost its place as an influential factor or having a position in the Middle East, today's Hamas is weaker than it has probably been since the disengagement, and hopefully it will never return to what it was