Doron Kadosh, a reporter for Galatz (IDF's radio station) explained that Israel is not talking any chances this time- they anticipate that Hamas might use the anniversary of October 7th to send thousands of Gazans to flood the Gaza-Israel border.
Many Gazans experienced a year of turmoil, as Israel went to war with Hamas. Many of them lost their homes and hundreds of thousands were forced to move in the face of the IDF's constant bombing. Officials in Israel's security establishment say that Hamas could use this to their advantage because the Gazans now feel that they have nothing left to lose.
Although Hamas has pretty much stopped functioning from a military standpoint, it has has people on the ground who are responsible for distributing humanitarian aid and are still governing Gaza to some extent. In light of this, they still have some sway over Gazans and could quite easily rile them up to storm the border fence.
What would Hamas gain from doing this? The psychological effect this will have on the citizens of Israel. Hamas does not have too many tools in its arsenal to use against Israel, but if it manages to pull this off, it will have devastating psychological effect on Israelis– Not only are we still reeling from the huge losses we have faced over the past year, but October 7th. the anniversary of the carnage, when we remember the viciousness and brutality that Hamas used to butcher 1200 Israelis, is bound to be a difficult day for all of us.
What's different this time though is that the IDF is fully prepared, with large forces gathered on all of its borders and there is no chance that it will be surprised this time.