In a seismic shift for Middle Eastern geopolitics, Hassan Nasrallah, the strategic leader of Hezbollah for over three decades, was killed Friday in Israeli airstrikes on the organization's underground headquarters near Beirut. This development marks a potential turning point in the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group.
For 30 years, Nasrallah was the mastermind behind Hezbollah's operations. He led the group from an underground guerrilla force to a significant political player in Lebanon, oversaw Hezbollah's fight against Israel to a standstill in the 2006 war, and expanded the group's influence into Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Nasrallah maintained close relationships with Hamas leaders and Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, solidifying Hezbollah's position in the regional power structure.
Israeli officials describe their recent actions as a "shock-and-awe" campaign, aiming to damage Hezbollah rapidly and extensively while avoiding the need for a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Their goal has been to disrupt Hezbollah's command structure and communications. In the past two weeks alone, Israeli strikes have reportedly killed over 700 people in Lebanon, according to the country's health ministry.
Prior to the recent escalation, Hezbollah was estimated to possess over 100,000 rockets and missiles, tens of thousands of fighters, and advanced armaments including drones, precision-guided missiles, and antiaircraft weapons. The group also boasts an extensive tunnel network, described as more sophisticated than that of Hamas. However, Hezbollah's responses to recent Israeli attacks have been less impactful than anticipated, with no large-scale commando raids into Israeli communities and limited damage from guided missile strikes.
Nasrallah's death creates a significant leadership crisis for Hezbollah. Potential successors include Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah's cousin, and Sheikh Naim Qassim, Nasrallah's deputy, both of whom are believed to have survived recent targeted killings. However, neither candidate matches Nasrallah's stature or experience, leaving a considerable void in the organization's leadership.
Despite recent successes, experts warn of potential difficulties for Israel. Hezbollah's tunnel network remains largely intact, with some tunnels reaching 65 yards underground. Destroying these tunnels requires large explosives and complex operations. A ground invasion of southern Lebanon could be costly and face fierce resistance, while targeting Hezbollah's strategic arsenal, often hidden in mountainous terrain, risks significant civilian casualties.
U.S. officials and analysts caution against underestimating Hezbollah, drawing parallels to the prolonged conflict with Hamas in Gaza. They warn that Hezbollah's sophisticated military capabilities exceed those of Hamas and suggest Nasrallah's death may prompt more aggressive action from the group.
The situation remains fluid, with several key factors to watch. Hezbollah's response to Nasrallah's death and choice of successor will be critical, as will Israel's next moves, including the possibility of a ground invasion. Iran's reaction and potential escalation of support for Hezbollah could also significantly impact the conflict's trajectory. International diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation could also play a vital role in the coming days and weeks.
The New York Times contributed to this article.