In a significant setback to Middle East diplomacy, the window for President Joe Biden to broker a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia before November's presidential election has effectively closed, according to insider sources. This development marks a pause in what could have been a transformative shift in regional alliances.
The ambitious deal, which aimed to reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, faced formidable hurdles from the outset. Saudi Arabia's insistence on a pathway to Palestinian statehood clashed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's repeated rejections of such a framework. However, it was the ticking clock of the U.S. congressional calendar that ultimately proved insurmountable.
With less than four weeks of Senate sessions remaining before a pre-election recess, the intricate dance of diplomacy has run out of time. The proposed U.S.-Saudi defense pact, a crucial component of the larger agreement, requires Senate ratification—a process demanding hearings and debates that cannot be squeezed into the dwindling legislative schedule.
A Democratic lawmaker and a senior Republican Senate aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, painted a stark picture of the time crunch. "The administration is fighting against time, which it just doesn't have enough of," the Republican aide noted, highlighting the political complexities of pushing through such a significant agreement in an election year.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has cast a long shadow over negotiations. Both U.S. and Saudi officials have publicly acknowledged that a ceasefire is a prerequisite for any normalization deal, recognizing the difficulty of selling such an agreement amidst ongoing hostilities.
While a White House official maintains that the window "hasn't closed completely," they conceded that progress is impossible without a Gaza ceasefire. Recent negotiations suggest that such a truce might still be weeks away, further complicating the timeline.
The potential deal's far-reaching implications make its delay all the more significant. It promised not only to reshape Middle Eastern alliances but also to potentially influence the trajectory of the U.S. presidential election. Now, with time running short, the future of this diplomatic endeavor remains uncertain, leaving a complex web of regional relationships in a state of flux.
As the clock ticks down to November, the once-promising vision of a new Middle Eastern order recedes into an uncertain future, leaving diplomats, politicians, and observers to ponder what might have been—and what still could be in the volatile landscape of international relations.
* The Times of Israel contributed to this article.