As Israel contends with ongoing conflicts, a new danger is quietly brewing: The West Bank, once considered a secondary arena, is rapidly becoming a powder keg that could ignite at any moment.
On a recent visit to the region, Eric R. Mandel, an author and Jpost contributor, witnessed firsthand the growing threat posed by Hamas and other jihadist groups along Israel's seam line—the boundary between the northern West Bank and Israel's coastal heartland. Here, a mere nine miles separates Palestinian cities from the Mediterranean Sea and Israel's major urban centers.
The newly formed IDF Panther battalion stands as a testament to the escalating tensions. Created specifically to counter the jihadist threat, these soldiers patrol a razor's edge between two worlds. On one side, Palestinian cities like Tulkarm and Kalkilya have become strongholds for Hamas operatives. On the other, Israeli coastal cities lie vulnerable, separated only by an invisible line drawn decades ago.
"Hamas completely controls Tulkarm," a Panther battalion officer revealed, his eyes scanning the horizon. "They're battling the Palestinian Authority for Kalkilya. Both are within rocket range of Tel Aviv."
This dire situation is a chilling parallel to pre-October 7 Gaza. Iran and Hamas, emboldened by past successes, are working tirelessly to transform the West Bank into a "Hamastan"—a mirror image of the Gaza Strip that launched devastating attacks on Israeli soil.
The threat extends beyond the seam line. In Jenin and Nablus, terror centers deep in the northern West Bank, the situation is equally volatile. Meir Ben-Shabbat, Israel's former National Security Adviser, warns of a "Gazafication" risk in Jenin. "Successfully addressing these challenges now will prevent the area from deteriorating into a situation that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas would like to see," he cautions.
Iran's fingerprints are everywhere. The Islamic Republic is flooding the West Bank with weapons and missile technology, aiming to replicate the arsenal that Hamas wielded so devastatingly in Gaza. This forms part of Iran's grand strategy to encircle Israel with a "ring of fire," slowly tightening the noose around the Jewish state.
The Jordan River Valley, Israel's longest border, has become a highway for this influx of arms. Despite sophisticated fencing, the border remains alarmingly porous. Israeli intelligence sources warn that at the current smuggling rate, Palestinian terror groups in the West Bank could launch rockets into Israel within a year.
As tensions simmer, the specter of October 7 looms large. The potential for a mass incursion from West Bank cities into nearby Israeli communities is a nightmare scenario that keeps military planners awake at night. With no underground border fence to block tunnels, the threat of Hamas replicating its Gaza tunnel network in the West Bank is all too real.
The stakes couldn't be higher. A West Bank explosion could destabilize not only Israel but also American allies in Jordan and Egypt, straining relations with moderate Gulf states. It poses a critical test for U.S. policymakers, challenging them to craft long-term strategies that account for the patience and determination of Middle Eastern adversaries.
As one Israeli intelligence expert put it, "The question of a major war is not if, but when." For Israel and its allies, the clock is ticking. The West Bank, long overshadowed by other conflicts, may soon take center stage in the region's turbulent drama.
* JPost contributed to this article.