With heightened tensions due to threats from Iran and Hezbollah after recent targeted strikes, the outcome of any subsequent Iranian and Hezbollah attacks will significantly influence the ongoing conflict that began after the Hamas massacre on October 7.
The potential impact of these attacks spans across Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and even the West Bank. As discussions for a cease-fire and hostage release deal approach, the fate of northern residents and the risk of a regional conflict are at stake.
Nasrallah, driven by a desire for revenge, might pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran due to his ability to inflict substantial damage. However, he is unlikely to engage in a war that would devastate Lebanon as severely as Gaza has been affected. The Lebanese public is opposed to war and is urging their government and Hezbollah to avoid escalating the conflict.
Lebanon faces severe internal challenges, including a dysfunctional government, a weakened army, and a deep economic crisis, making the prospect of war particularly dire. “Lebanon is four times as anxious as Israel,” a senior IDF official told Ynet. “If Nasrallah makes a strategic error and launches a disproportionate attack, Israel could seize the opportunity to reshape the northern front dramatically.”
The official indicated that the IDF is prepared to deliver a significant blow to Lebanon, given the persistent attacks on the Galilee and Golan Heights over the past 10 months. While such a conflict would result in greater threats to Israelis than those experienced from Hamas rockets, it could be seen as a necessary measure to secure the northern border. However, this scenario could also further erode public trust in the government and the IDF.
Iran remains apprehensive due to the U.S. military build-up in the region and the potential for Israeli retaliation. The growing international support for Israel has made the Iranian leadership cautious, even as they continue to seek revenge. They are concerned about the impact of a possible Israeli response on their already struggling economy and regime stability.