The celebration in Jerusalem over Trump's victory might be premature. A crucial piece of his first-term Middle East success story – Jared Kushner – won't be returning to the White House, and that should worry Israeli leaders.
During Trump's first term, Kushner was the architect behind what Israel considers major diplomatic victories: the Abraham Accords, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and recognition of the Golan Heights. But after January 6, both Kushner and Ivanka Trump retreated from the political spotlight to their Miami estate.
Despite joining Trump on stage for his victory speech, they've made it clear: they won't be part of his second administration.
This absence creates a diplomatic vacuum at a particularly delicate moment. Israel finds itself increasingly isolated internationally, with Defense Minister Gallant's sudden dismissal adding to the chaos.
Without Kushner's moderating influence and deep understanding of the region's complexities, Trump's infamous impulsiveness could prove more problematic than beneficial for Israel.
The next few months look particularly challenging: Biden, freed from reelection concerns, might push hard for dramatic changes in Gaza policy before leaving office. He no longer needs to court Jewish or Muslim voters, and his administration has already hinted at withholding military aid if Israel doesn't increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
Looking ahead, Trump's isolationist tendencies could leave Israel more dependent on itself than ever. While he'll likely provide diplomatic cover at the UN, his "America First" approach might mean less financial support than before. Without Kushner's diplomatic finesse, Netanyahu will need to navigate a more transactional relationship with a president known for sudden policy shifts.
For Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Trump's return brings mixed emotions. While they prefer him to Biden, they remember 2019, when Iran disrupted Saudi oil production and Trump's response was notably muted. Wha thye might do is hedge their bets, avoid antagonizing Iran and possibly withhold support for Israel's Gaza plans unless Trump offers concrete guarantees. And that's without even considering normalization at this stage.
The biggest wild card might be Iran. While Tehran fears Trump's unpredictability and potential sanctions, they might accelerate their nuclear program, following North Korea's playbook of achieving deterrence through nuclear capability. Without Kushner's back-channel diplomacy, managing this threat becomes even more complicated.
Netanyahu will likely work overtime to curry Trump's favor, trying to avoid the tensions that marked the end of his first term.
But with Kushner gone and Trump focused on domestic upheaval, Israel might find its closest ally more distant than expected – right when it needs support the most.
Ynet contributed to this analysis.
