There is little doubt that after the election, Iran and its "resistance" axis, which includes various militias in Iraq, will continue to carry out attacks. Iranian officials, like Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have made clear statements of defiance, saying, “Iran and the Resistance Front are ready, and the Zionists cannot confront us; they must await our response.”
The Iraqi militias represent a significant threat to both Israel and regional stability, including to US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria. These groups, which gained influence during the fight against ISIS after 2014, have grown in strength and capability, often receiving backing from Tehran. Some factions, such as Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, have increasingly focused on threatening Israel, while others have conducted joint operations with Iranian forces.
Following the escalation of violence in the region, the militias created the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization to coordinate their attacks on Israel. Since then, they have launched dozens of drone strikes against Israeli targets and US troops stationed in the area. The militias, however, remember the consequences of their previous actions—namely, the US assassination of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in 2020, following a series of militia-led attacks on US personnel. These events reinforced the belief within the militias that any aggression could result in serious retaliation from the US.
As for the incoming US administration under President-elect Donald Trump, the militias are aware of his strong stance on defending US troops. Trump has been critical of long-term foreign deployments, but he has shown an unwavering commitment to protecting American personnel abroad. This awareness means the militias could adjust their tactics, weighing the risks of provoking Israel, which might respond without restraint.
The militias find themselves in a precarious position, where they must balance Iran’s expectations with the potential consequences of increased aggression. On one hand, they want to prove their worth as the front line in the “resistance” against Israel, especially in the wake of Hamas and Hezbollah's diminished capabilities. On the other hand, they may hesitate to escalate further, knowing their resources are limited and they lack the sophistication to launch sustained, high-impact operations.
In the coming days and weeks, the region will hold its breath, awaiting the next phase of this delicate geopolitical standoff. The militias will likely continue to plot their next moves, mindful of both the opportunities and the risks ahead, especially as the US shifts toward a new administration that is both supportive of Israel and cautious about prolonged military engagement. The balance of power remains in flux, with both Iran and its proxies calculating the timing and scale of their responses to evolving regional dynamics.
