A Trump return to the White House may be seen as a diplomatic bombshell, potentially freezing current ceasefire efforts and altering U.S. support for Israel’s military operations, especially in the short term, according to the report from the Jerusalem post.
Trump's policies on Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran would likely diverge sharply from those of President Joe Biden. Under Biden’s leadership, the U.S. played a key role in diplomatic efforts to secure ceasefires and supported Israel’s military strategy, including its defense against Iranian missile threats. But with Trump’s victory, Israel may find itself confronting a dramatically different approach. This shift could cause confusion and instability in ongoing peace negotiations, as the U.S. had been a primary diplomatic actor.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and right-wing Israelis, Trump’s win is likely seen as a positive development. Netanyahu wasted no time in congratulating Trump, praising his historic return to the White House and reaffirming the strong U.S.-Israel alliance that was built during Trump’s first term. During that period, Trump took a series of pro-Israel steps, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing it as Israel’s capital, and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal—decisions that endeared him to many Israelis.
However, Trump’s policies during his first term were often influenced by political considerations, particularly his need to appeal to his voter base, including evangelical Christians who strongly supported Israel. The situation is different in his second term, where Trump will not have to worry about re-election, which raises questions about how his policies could evolve without those political constraints.
While Trump was beneficial for Israel during times of peace, his approach to diplomacy in times of war, especially with regard to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, is uncertain. His victory could lead to pressure on Israel to conclude the ongoing war with Hamas and Hezbollah, possibly resulting in a ceasefire that might favor Israel's long-term strategic interests. However, this could also lead to a situation where Israeli military goals are at odds with a broader political settlement, especially if Trump leans toward limiting U.S. involvement in military actions abroad.
Netanyahu and Trump have historically aligned on many issues, including those related to Israel's security and territorial claims. If a Biden administration had remained in office, it likely would have pushed for a post-conflict plan in Gaza that included a two-state solution and the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza—something that Trump would likely oppose. Trump's policies on Iran and the Palestinian issue are expected to be more in line with Netanyahu’s objectives, which could lead to a more hardline stance against Iranian nuclear ambitions and further military actions.
Trump’s return to office could also impact U.S. support for Israel's military actions in Gaza and against Iran. It is speculated that he might even take a more aggressive approach to confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions, potentially accelerating military action, including airstrikes on Iranian facilities. The Iranian regime has previously expressed fear of Trump, suggesting that his return could alter the balance of power in the region, possibly deterring Iran from escalating hostilities.
In the coming months before Trump officially assumes office on January 20, 2025, the Biden administration faces a crucial window in which it must navigate complex ceasefire negotiations with adversaries who may prefer to wait for Trump, believing his terms could be more favorable. The Biden administration’s leverage in pushing Israel for a ceasefire or a political settlement is weakened by the looming uncertainty over the change in leadership.
Ultimately, while Trump’s victory may provide a short-term diplomatic boost to Israel in its conflict with Hamas and its ongoing challenges with Iran, the long-term consequences could lead to a shifting diplomatic and military landscape in the Middle East, with ripple effects that could impact both regional stability and U.S.-Israel relations for years to come.
