Nearly a year after the October 7 attack on Israel, Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal claims the terrorist organization is "winning the war" despite heavy losses.
In an op-ed for Arutz Sheva, Jonathan S. Tobin explains the truth behind their claim. Here's what he says:
Hamas's Strategy: Survival as Success
Hamas appears to be banking on a simple yet potentially effective strategy: survival. The group believes that merely remaining operational at the war's conclusion will constitute a victory.
They are playing a waiting game, anticipating that international pressure will eventually force Israel to leave Gaza. Their leaders argue that their movement is an "idea" that can't be militarily defeated.
The Role of International Politics
A significant aspect of Hamas's confidence stems from developments in U.S. politics: Although Israel had strong U.S. support at the beginning of the war, that has gradually shifted. This is partially a result of pressure from left-wing groups and concerns about what supporting Israel will mean for the 2024 elections.
Military Reality vs. Political Perception
Despite Hamas's claims, the military situation on the ground tells a different story: Hamas has suffered severe losses, with an estimated 17,000 operatives killed. Its organized military formations are no longer considered combat-effective and its ability to launch long-range missiles into Israel has been significantly degraded. However, Hamas believes that these military setbacks can be overcome if they maintain political relevance and support among Palestinians.
The Palestinian Political Landscape
Hamas is banking on a long-standing pattern in Palestinian politics where groups gain credibility through conflict with Israel. They anticipate increased support in both Gaza and the West Bank and they also believe that they could replace the Palestinian Authority (currently led by Fatah).
Challenges for Israel
Israel faces several obstacles in its goal to eliminate Hamas. These include International pressure to limit civilian casualties and end the conflict, internal strife and protests, particularly from families of hostages and the complex nature of urban warfare in Gaza.
Whether Hamas is "winning" depends largely on one's definition of victory. While they've suffered significant military losses, their survival and potential for political gains keep their aspirations alive. As the situation continues to evolve, it's clear that both sides face significant challenges and that the definition of "victory" in this conflict remains hotly contested.
