In a tragic turn of events that many feared but hoped to avoid, a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights became the latest flashpoint in the simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. On Saturday evening, a rocket strike killed 12 children aged 10 to 16 during a training session in the Druze town of Majdal Shams.
The incident eerily echoed the concerns voiced by Amos Hochstein, President Biden's envoy for the region, just months earlier. In May, Hochstein had warned of the potential for a miscalculation or accident to trigger a wider conflict. Now, his words seem prophetic as the international community holds its breath, waiting to see if this tragedy will indeed "slide us into war."
Israel swiftly pointed the finger at Hezbollah, claiming the rocket was launched from Shebaa in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, for its part, has denied responsibility.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz's rhetoric was ominous: "We are approaching the moment of an all-out war against Hezbollah," he declared on Israeli television. The United States, walking a diplomatic tightrope, affirmed Israel's right to self-defense while urging restraint.
For months, the specter of all-out war has loomed over the region. Hezbollah, Iran's strongest proxy, reportedly has an arsenal of at least 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel. The potential devastation of a full-scale conflict is a sobering thought for all involved.
Yet, despite several close calls over the past ten months — including the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut and an IRGC commander in Damascus — both sides have consistently pulled back from the brink. The current exchanges, while deadly, still simmer rather than boil over.
But the status quo is untenable. Tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese have been displaced, with large areas near the border resembling ghost towns. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sees a Gaza ceasefire as the key to de-escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with talks set to resume.
However, this would only be a temporary fix. Israel's long-term goal remains pushing Hezbollah back to the Litani River, as stipulated in the UN resolution that ended their 2006 war. As Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant bluntly put it in December, "If the world doesn't get Hezbollah away from the border, Israel will do it."
As the region teeters on edge, Hochstein's May warning resonates more than ever: "Wars have started historically around the world even when leaders didn't want them, because they had no choice."
* CNN contributed to this article.
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