The results of the Super Tuesday vote, in which primaries were held in 15 states across the US, did not come as a surprise to anyone. In both parties, the leading candidate was the one who won the majority of the delegates, with former president Trump taking all but one state (Halley ended up winning Vermont) and incumbent president Biden easily winning all the votes besides the small island territory of American Samoa. Both are now on the verge of securing their party's nomination well before the summer conventions, which would be Biden's second nomination and Trump's third.
But despite the widespread support from party officials, in the end it seems that most US citizens are not really enthusiastic about the expected rematch between Trump and Biden this November. Much has been said about Biden's advanced age and the fear of memory problems, but in the end Trump is not exactly the youngest candidate either. He will be 78 as of Election Day, the same age that Biden was when he began his current term in office.
Many were hoping for a younger candidate to lead the "next generation," and while among Democrats it is understandable that no one wants to be the one who challenges an incumbent president, it is precisely among the Republicans that the widespread support for Trump is disappointing.
Republican voters are understandably fed up with wide-spread criticism of Trump following his refusal to recognize Biden's victory in 2020, the criminal charges filed against him, and the smear campaign following the Jan. 6 Capitol storming at the hands of his supporters. They probably also remember that in 2016 Trump was elected only thanks to the Electoral System, even though the majority of the public voted for Hillary Clinton.
Choosing Nikki Haley as the party's candidate could bring to the ballot those who did not vote at all the previous times, and even transfer votes from the Democratic side to the Republicans - especially those who voted for Biden last time despite opposing parts of his policies but could not muster the strength to vote for Trump due to their disgust with his conduct toward political rivals and anyone else he views as a direct threat to his success.
Trump has already received the maximum amount of votes
In the end, if the 2024 election is between the same candidates who competed in 2020, it could result in Trump already being at his maximum potential votes - while Biden, who already won last time, could still get the votes of those who didn't vote for him four years ago. There may be Democrats who will not vote for Biden because of his age, or because they oppose his support for Israel in the war, but the likelihood that they will cross over to the other camp and vote for Trump is low.
On the other hand, there are those in the GOP camp who voted for Trump last time, but will stay home in November, or even vote for Biden this time, not out of love for Joe but hatred for Donald. Whether it's Haley's supporters or more "moderate" Republicans who fear damage to American democracy or oppose a presidential candidate standing trial on criminal charges, the chances of Trump winning again in states that aren't Trumpist "strongholds" are lower than they were in the past.
The bottom line is that there is a high chance these elections will mirror the 2020 race not only when it comes to the candidates themselves - but also the final results. Those who hope for a significant change will probably have to wait until 2028.
