Benjamin Netanyahu is right not to cave on the hostages

Ever since October 7 took place, Israel has been caught between two seemingly irreconcilable strategic goals: to free the hostages, living and dead, and to destroy Hamas' governing and military power.

The Israeli public and its governing classes have been similarly divided, with Netanyahu and much of the government trying to navigate the two goals while giving up on neither one.

Meanwhile, most of the senior security establishment has consistently, at almost every possible opportunity, broadcast their desire to simply give up, usually with the empty promise that "we can deal with any eventuality" - and this, just days, weeks, months after one of the greatest failures in Israel's history.

A lot of this has to do with the reference points of the two groups. Voters for the coalition are consistently divided on what to prioritize: destroying Hamas or freeing the hostages. The government is responsible to its voters and tries to work according to its wishes.

Meanwhile, members of the security establishment consider themselves pretty much solely responsible to other unelected institutions such as the mainstream media, the legal establishment, and other such groups, all of whom are far more in tune with the desires of the opposition parties than the public at large.

While said parties did make a show of being in favor of both strategic goals, they have long since moved towards the stance that the only thing that matters is the hostages, no matter what.

It doesn't matter that Hamas openly wants to do another October 7. It doesn't matter that doing a deal on Hamas terms would guarantee this. It doesn't matter that agreeing to such a deal would greatly and very dangerously weaken Israeli military deterrence and encourage more hostilities against Israel.

It's an emotionally powerful argument, and understandable from the perspective of a country that's effectively one big family.

But logically, and even morally, it's open to challenge, and is not the trump card against Netanyahu many think. It is filled with wishful thinking to the point of self-delusion. It also sets an insanely dangerous precedent for future hostage takings, which will happen.

Side note: All the attacks on Netanyahu (many of them justified) for having failed to protect Israel from an October 7 attack are equally applicable to every single former and current serving security official (or former minister) lying through their teeth that they can easily prevent such a thing.

Israelis were bombarded with such "expert" statements in the past decade and a half, and they were - then as now - nonsense, calming lies people were desperate to believe.

But what about the hostages issue? Well, any deal that ensures Hamas continues to exist and govern 2 million Gazans - with all the attendant protection and tax and international aid revenue - pretty much guarantees terrorist attacks not only murdering and injuring Israelis but also more attempts at hostage taking.

Does that mean we should abandon the hostages? No. And Netanyahu is not doing so. But it does mean that "at any cost" is going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and sooner than we think.

But what about the state's moral obligation to its citizens? That obligation cuts both ways - both towards the hostages AND the citizens who will have huge targets painted on their backs if a bad deal is cut with an unrepentant terrorist organization.

The idea that Israel needs to do whatever it needs to in order to "heal" is folly. It took decades to heal from the trauma of the Yom Kippur War. I imagine the same will be the case with October 7.

Our enemies are not going to sit on their hands all that time. We don't have the luxury of acting like a post-historical or End of History country in Scandavia or Canada. Constantly talking about trauma being the main issue as opposed to simple survival and living will only make things worse - and we will certainly not "heal" in the strategic conditions guaranteeing many more dead bodies and hostages.

So hate Bibi all you want. Disagree with him. Maybe even support the idea that the hostages should all be released, no matter what. But whatever you do, to quote Dostoevsky: Don't lie to yourself about the consequences.