Will there be a civil war in Israel? A new poll shows that 60% of Israelis think so

As Israel navigates its 18-month war with Hamas and a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah, a new question has come up: could internal divisions push the nation toward civil war? [Actually, it's not that new if you look back to the Judicial Reform protests. More about that later.]

The idea of civil war in Israel, once dismissed as far-fetched, has gained traction as a result of escalating political strife, war and protests. Yet, while tensions are high, the likelihood of a full-scale civil conflict remains uncertain.

The seeds of discord predate the current Gaza war. In 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul sparked unprecedented protests, pitting liberal secularists against his ultranationalist coalition. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets, fearing a slide into autocracy. The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack briefly united Israelis, but the prolonged war has reignited divisions. Protests demanding a ceasefire and hostage deal swelled in March 2025, with over 500,000 rallying nationwide on September 1, 2024, after six hostages were found dead.

Voices from across the spectrum now sound the alarm. Former Supreme Court Chief Justice Aharon Barak told Ynet on March 20, 2025, “Israel is very close to civil war,” pointing to Netanyahu’s moves to oust the Shin Bet chief and attorney general as tipping points. Ex-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert echoed this to The New York Times, warning Netanyahu “is ready to sacrifice everything for his survival.” Opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the government on March 22 of “doing everything to start a civil war,” while leftist MK Ofer Cassif has called Israel’s trajectory a path to “fascist dictatorship.”

It's obvious (but still important to note) that Barak, Olmert, Lapid and Cassif are all leftists, with a vested interest in getting Netanyahu out. As such, it's important not to give their words too much weight, because they don't reflect the truth as much as they try to sow seeds of discord.

Unfortunately, their voices were joined by reservist Maj. Nir Avishai Cohen m who urged civil disobedience on social media, arguing the Gaza war props up Netanyahu’s coalition.

The rift isn’t just political, it’s cultural. Secular Ashkenazi elites, long dominant in Israel’s power structures, are worried about a rising tide of religious and far-right factions, bolstered by settlers and ultra-Orthodox communities. Netanyahu’s coalition, including Itamar Ben-Gvir pushes policies like judicial control and West Bank annexation that could further alienate moderates.

A 1982 CIA report, declassified in 2007, foresaw such Sephardi-Ashkenazi tensions, predicting socioeconomic divides could destabilize Israel. Today, the war amplifies these fractures, with the military, once a unifying force, caught between blame for October 7 and pressure to back Netanyahu’s agenda.

Historical precedent adds weight. The 1948 Altalena Affair, when rival Zionist militias clashed over weapons, nearly derailed Israel’s founding. Analysts like Ramzy Baroud of The Palestine Chronicle see parallels, suggesting a scapegoated army might rebel if marginalized further. Yet unity persists: polls from the Israel Democracy Institute in March 2025 show 70% of Israelis, including 61.5% of Likud voters, favor ceasefire talks over endless war, hinting at a shared desire to avoid collapse.

So, is civil war imminent? Experts are split. Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies told The Media Line on December 31, 2024, that 2025 will be “turbulent but less bloody,” citing military gains against Hamas and Hezbollah. Conversely, Alon Pinkas told Al Jazeera on October 18, 2024, that the “national scar” of October 7 and hostage losses could fracture society long-term. Although protests have turned violent (five injured in Tel Aviv on April 6, 2024, when a car rammed demonstrators), they haven’t reached armed insurgency.

That doesn't mean that the left wing aren't furious. Anti-Bibi sentiment has become more popular than ever, with daily protests outside the Knesset disrupting the lives of Rechavia's residents.

Tensions are running high. Firstly the hostage crisis is still unresolved with the families desperately pushing for a ceasefire, in the hope that it will bring their loved ones back home. Secondly, the reservists are exhausted after some serving as many as 4 rotations during this war. The third reason connects to that - the issue of the Haredi draft, or more correctly, the issue of the Haredi non-draft. Haredim believe that the Torah world is being threatened and with it, their way of life. Everyone else believes that they are disgracefully shirking their civic opportunity and taking a chill while others serve (and die) in their stead.

Israel’s militarized populace, with widespread gun ownership, raises the stakes. Add that to the many soldiers suffering from PTSD and to Ben-Gvir’s push for permits and we could be looking at a tinderbox just waiting to explode. The government denies stoking division, with Netanyahu recently insisting (March 18), “There will be no civil war.”

Let's hope he's right.