The Arabs are firing blanks; will Trump fire bullets?

The Arab world has been in turmoil since President Donald Trump announced his plan to clear the Gaza Strip of its residents, relocate them to new sites, and turn Gaza into an economic paradise under American control.

Meanwhile, it appears that Arab world leaders are presenting a united front against the plan, but behind the scenes, many understand that playing "chicken" with the strongest superpower in history, led by a volatile president, is a strategy that could cost them dearly, especially when the reward is the return of Palestinians to the center of Arab public life.

While President El-Sisi of Egypt beats his chest from his seat in Cairo and makes threats that vanish into the wind about wars, boycotts, and clashes with the West, many in the Arab world understand that they are not in a position of strength as they once were. While Egypt currently behaves in a manner reminiscent of Arab leadership in the 1970s, the countries around it want to move into the 21st century.

Egypt still acts as if it perceives itself as the leader of the Arab world, dragging Muslim sentiments worldwide along with it. However, not only is this not the case, Egypt is among the weakest countries by any metric in the Arab League. The Egyptian army might look threatening on paper, but in any practical sense, it's an "army" where most of its soldiers are there to avoid unemployment. The Egyptian army might possess modern Western equipment, but its soldiers hardly train at all, spending most of their days in manual labor for state authorities.

Moreover, Egypt is an economic black hole. A country where population growth outpaces economic growth, mired in massive debts to every financial entity from the towers in Dubai to banks in Switzerland to the International Monetary Fund in New York. Egypt cannot sustain itself without Western support, and even the oil-rich Arab principalities cannot support a country with 100 million citizens below the poverty line on their own.

Another country in Israel's first circle struggling to digest this news is Jordan, but unlike Egypt, Jordan understands its place on the international chessboard and its status as Israel's satellite state, surviving on the American dollar and the presence of the US military on its soil.

Jordan's king was invited to the White House, where despite the explosive rhetoric he spread in his kingdom weeks earlier, he was forced to submit and "kiss the ring" of Trump live on air, no less and no more, alongside his crown prince.

Even countries in the second circle are not in a better position. Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be richer and more influential than others in the region, but they've nearly lost all ability to withstand real American pressure. While in the past, they could shake economies by closing oil pipelines for days, weeks, or months, they can no longer afford to significantly disrupt oil consumption.

Their economies have become too advanced and interdependent over the last few decades. While during the great oil embargo of the 70s, these were mostly industrially underdeveloped countries with small populations and massive cash flows, that is no longer the case today.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have grown into economic giants, in terms of cash flows, population, industry, and more. Any disruption in cash flow threatens the very ability of the regime to survive; the authorities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE subsidize almost every aspect of their citizens' lives and invest billions of dollars daily to diversify their economies. Any hit to these revenues could be devastating.

Moreover, the world is not what it used to be. The US has become one of the largest exporters of oil and natural gas, in addition to several other countries joining the market. Cutting off Arab oil flow could backfire on Arab countries, allowing other nations to take over the market and push them out.

The voices we hear from them align with these conclusions. While countries like Egypt and Turkey make empty threats and flex their muscles against the US, the UAE not only remains silent but also leads an especially peaceful line towards Trump's proposal, stating that Arabs should only oppose "forced expulsion" in their terms, not voluntary migration.

At the end of the day, the Arabs can make noise, stomp, cry, and roll on the floor in tears. If President Trump decides that emptying Gaza of its residents will happen, it will happen. The only question is whether President Trump is ready to fire the first shot, which would likely be the last.