Only 2 days to go - US Elections 2024

Find out renowned polling guru’s US election eve forecast

Nate Silver shares his final prediction as candidates make last push.

2024 elections. Illustration. (Photo: QubixStudio/Shutterstock)

Renowned election analyst Nate Silver has called the White House race a "pure toss-up," giving former President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.

According to a Substack post on Sunday, Silver’s model predicts Trump has a 51.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 48.1%, as reported by Mediate.

Silver highlighted the mixed results in recent polling, tweeting, “NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great."

The Times/Siena College poll showed Harris leading narrowly in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a clearer lead in Arizona. Michigan and Pennsylvania are virtually tied, creating a suspenseful Election Day just two days away.

Meanwhile, Morning Consult’s poll has Trump with slight leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, with Arizona and Pennsylvania locked in a dead heat, according to Forbes.

* The New York Post contributed to this article.

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The time for prognostications is over. The time for voting is soon. We will know this week.
The Jewish Patriarch 04.11.24

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