French voters are casting their ballots today (Sunday) in the final round of a snap parliamentary election that could reshape the country's political landscape. President Emmanuel Macron's gamble in calling an early election may result in significant losses for his centrist alliance and potentially force him into an uneasy partnership with the far right for the remainder of his term.
The far-right National Rally (RN), led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella under the guidance of party veteran Marine Le Pen, emerged as the frontrunner in the first round of voting last Sunday. The RN secured 33% of the popular vote, followed by the newly-formed left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), with 28%. Macron's Ensemble alliance trailed with 21%.
To counter the possibility of a far-right majority government—unseen in France since World War II—Macron's Ensemble and the NFP have engaged in strategic withdrawals. Over 200 candidates from both groups have stepped aside in certain constituencies to consolidate the anti-far right vote.
The National Assembly consists of 577 seats, with 289 required for an absolute majority. Macron's alliance held 250 seats in the outgoing parliament, necessitating support from other parties to pass legislation. The RN, which had 88 seats previously, could potentially triple its representation but may fall short of an absolute majority.
If the RN fails to secure a majority, Macron might need to search for a prime minister from the hard left or form a technocratic government. Bardella has stated he would refuse to lead a minority government, potentially complicating the post-election scenario.
This election, called three years ahead of schedule, follows the RN's strong performance in last month's European Parliament elections. Macron justified the early vote as a response to the electorate's message, though some speculate it may be an attempt to expose the RN to governance before the 2027 elections.
An RN-led government could have significant implications for both France and Europe. Their proposed economic policies, including tax cuts on energy products, have raised concerns in financial markets and could conflict with EU spending regulations. On the European stage, it could contribute to a rightward shift at a time when unity is crucial on issues such as Ukraine, migration, and climate change.
The campaign has been marred by violence, with the Interior Minister reporting 51 incidents of assault on candidates and campaigners.
Polls close at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), with full results expected early Monday. The outcome of this election could usher in a period of political uncertainty in France, as Macron would be unable to call another parliamentary election for at least a year.
* CNN contributed to this article.
