Shock revelation: Obama would defeat Trump in hypothetical third term poll

A new Overton Insights poll reveals that former President Barack Obama would edge out Donald Trump in a hypothetical election, securing 53 percent to Trump’s 47 percent, if a third term were constitutionally possible. This comes after Obama openly criticized Trump’s policies, while Trump, fresh into his second term, has mused about running again despite legal hurdles.

Trump recently told NBC’s Kristen Welker, “People are asking me to run. And there is a whole story about running for a third term.” He added, “I don’t know. I never looked into it. They do say there’s a way you can do it.” When asked about facing Obama, he quipped, “I’d love that, boy, I’d love that. That would be a good one.”

Amending the Constitution for a third term requires a two-thirds vote in Congress and approval from 38 states— a steep challenge, experts say. Trump has floated a workaround: running as vice president with JD Vance in 2028, then having Vance step aside. Legal scholars, however, cite the 12th Amendment, which blocks this by disqualifying anyone ineligible for the presidency from the vice presidency.

Obama, meanwhile, has ramped up his attacks on Trump. Speaking at Hamilton College on Thursday, he warned, “It has been easy during most of our lifetimes to say you are a progressive or say you are for social justice or say you’re for free speech and not have to pay a price for it.” He urged citizens to act, saying, “It is up to all of us to fix this, the ordinary person who says: ‘No, that’s not right.’”

He also took aim at White House moves against political foes. “I was troubled by the idea that a White House would suspend the security clearances or order federal agencies to cancel contracts to firms connected to political rivals,” Obama said. “That kind of behavior is contrary to the basic compact we have as Americans. Imagine if I had done any of this.”

Without naming Trump, Obama referenced the administration’s barring of the Associated Press from White House coverage over its refusal to call the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” He jabbed, “Imagine if I had pulled Fox News’ credentials from the White House press corps. You’re laughing, but this is what’s happening.” The poll and Obama’s remarks spotlight a lingering rivalry with big stakes—if only the rules allowed it.