Somaliland: Could it take in Gazans—and what’s the Houthi connection?

Nestled along the Gulf of Aden, opposite Yemen’s volatile shores, Somaliland—a self-declared state unrecognized by the world—is emerging as an unlikely player in the Middle East’s complex chess game. This week, whispers of a bold proposal surfaced: Could this isolated nation, desperate for legitimacy, absorb displaced Gazans? And if so, how does this tie into Israel’s escalating battle with the Houthi rebels—and what does Turkey, a regional heavyweight, make of it?

The notion sounds far-fetched at first. Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia with just over six million people, lacks the global recognition it craves, hemmed in by neighbors who offer little support. Yet, much like Israel, it has fought to carve out a functioning democracy amid chaos—a fragile island of stability in a turbulent sea. Now, as Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepens and the Houthis disrupt Red Sea shipping, Somaliland’s strategic location and hunger for relevance are thrusting it into the spotlight.

A Nation in Limbo

Somaliland’s story begins nearly 35 years ago, when it declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after a brutal civil war. Somalia, a Muslim-majority nation in the Horn of Africa, has since grappled with chronic instability—warlords, piracy, and extremist groups like Al-Shabaab have left it fractured. Somaliland, by contrast, has quietly built a stable government, holding elections and fostering a reputation as a rare democratic success in the region.

But there’s a catch: the world doesn’t see it as a country. Most nations, wary of upsetting Somalia or setting a precedent for secessionist movements, refuse to recognize Somaliland’s sovereignty. It can’t sign trade deals, tap into World Bank loans, or join the international community as an equal. Its economy, forced into self-reliance, is a patchwork of livestock exports, remittances—and, embarrassingly, a thriving piracy trade born of desperation along its 850-kilometer coastline.

For Somaliland, recognition isn’t just a diplomatic nicety—it’s an existential lifeline. “The most important thing for us is to get recognition after showing the world we’re a peace-loving, democratic country that’s been independent for 33 years,” Foreign Minister Essa Kayd told Israel’s Kan News when asked about hosting Gazans. Translation: Somaliland’s leaders are weighing any move—however unconventional—against the potential payoff in global legitimacy.

The Gaza Angle

Enter the Gaza proposal. With Israel’s war against Hamas stretching into its second year and no clear “day after” plan for the battered enclave, the idea of relocating Palestinians has floated around—most controversially in President Donald Trump’s February suggestion that the US take over Gaza and move its residents elsewhere. Egypt and Jordan flatly refused, but Somaliland, a Muslim state with room to grow, presents a different calculus.

Political analysts see a pragmatic logic here. “Somaliland’s leaders are driven by a desire for Israel to recognize them as a sovereign state,” says Dr. Amina Farah, an expert on Islamic geopolitics at the University of Nairobi. “Taking in Gazans could be their ticket—a humanitarian gesture that doubles as a bargaining chip with Israel and its US allies.”

The benefits for Israel could be twofold. First, it offloads a humanitarian burden, easing pressure on Gaza’s 2 million residents while sidestepping accusations of ethnic cleansing—provided the move is voluntary. Second, and more critically, Somaliland’s location could bolster Israel’s security strategy against the Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who’ve turned the Red Sea into a battleground.

The Red Sea Chessboard

Somaliland’s coastline hugs the Gulf of Aden, a stone’s throw from Yemen, where the Houthis have spent the past year firing drones and missiles at ships, choking a vital artery of global trade. Last month alone, Houthi attacks forced rerouting of $200 billion in cargo, jacking up shipping costs worldwide. Israel, a frequent Houthi target due to its US ties, has retaliated with airstrikes, but its reach is limited.

Five months ago, Middle East Monitor, a pro-Qatari outlet, dropped a bombshell: Israel had secretly pitched Somaliland a deal. Build us a military base, the offer reportedly went, and we’ll give you recognition plus economic investment. From Berbera, Somaliland’s main port, Israeli forces could monitor Houthi movements, stage operations, and deter attacks—turning a diplomatic gambit into a strategic foothold.

“Somaliland’s proximity to the Red Sea makes it a goldmine,” says Michael Rubin, a Middle East security analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “For Israel, it’s a way to project power without relying solely on distant bases or overflights.”

Turkey’s Play—and Ethiopia’s Edge

Israel isn’t alone in eyeing Somaliland. Ethiopia, landlocked and hungry for sea access, beat Jerusalem to the punch with a landmark deal: access to Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. For Ethiopia, a regional powerhouse, it’s a win-win; for Somaliland, it’s a crack in the recognition wall that could inspire others.

Then there’s Turkey, which has its own designs. Ankara has spent years cultivating ties across the Horn, mediating between Somalia and Ethiopia in the Somaliland dispute. Six months ago, Bloomberg reported Turkey was negotiating with Somalia to test long-range missiles there—a move that could counterbalance Israel’s influence. Somalia, wary of Turkish overreach, inked a defense pact with Egypt instead, muddying the waters further.

“Turkey sees Somaliland as a piece in a bigger puzzle,” says Ayse Kaya, a Turkish foreign policy scholar at Sabanci University. “It wants to check Israel’s moves while keeping Somalia in its orbit. But if Somaliland pivots toward Israel, Ankara won’t be happy.”

The UAE Factor

Complicating matters, the United Arab Emirates—Israel’s Abraham Accords partner—looms large. The UAE has poured humanitarian aid into Gaza since Hamas’s grip weakened, signaling a long-term stake in the Strip’s future. Somaliland, culturally tied to the Gulf, takes cues from Emirati priorities. If Abu Dhabi backs a Gaza resettlement plan, Somaliland might follow suit, especially if it means UAE recognition too.

“Saudis and Emiratis care about the Palestinian issue,” notes Farah. “Somaliland could see this as a way to curry favor with them—and through them, the US.”

Risks and Rewards

For Somaliland, the rewards are tantalizing: recognition from Israel, the US, or even the African Union could unlock trade, aid, and a seat at the table. But the risks are steep. Somalia, still claiming Somaliland as its own, could escalate threats of reconquest. Absorbing Gazans might strain resources in a country already stretched thin—piracy may pay, but it’s no substitute for a robust economy.

Israel, meanwhile, gains a tactical edge against the Houthis and a diplomatic win, but at the cost of navigating a crowded field. Turkey’s displeasure could ripple through NATO ties, while Somalia’s instability risks spilling over.

What’s Next?

Officially, Israel denies formal ties with Somaliland since its 1991 independence bid. Yet, behind closed doors, the wheels are turning. Somaliland’s Foreign Ministry hasn’t ruled out the Gaza idea, and its leaders know a bold move could rewrite their future.

In a region where alliances shift like sand, Somaliland’s gamble could either cement its place—or leave it stranded once more.