Gaza War could escalate: Here's what to expect

Israel’s military launched a sweeping operation in Gaza overnight, a calculated escalation that security officials warn could risk hostages’ lives yet deem necessary to break a negotiation impasse with Hamas. With airstrikes already underway and a potential ground maneuver on the horizon, the campaign—backed by the U.S.—signals a high-stakes pivot as Jerusalem juggles diplomacy and force in pursuit of its 59 captives and a decisive blow to the terror group.

The assault, greenlit after a late Monday security consultation led by the Prime Minister, follows weeks of planning by the IDF, with incoming Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir helping shape a multi-phase strategy. “Defeating Hamas” is the stated goal, a mission unfolding in stages that could intensify based on battlefield developments. Artillery fire now peppers Gaza’s northern and central edges, nudging civilians toward safer zones—a move sources say preps the ground for a possible land incursion if talks falter further.

The operation’s roots lie in a promise breached: after vowing in November 2023 to avoid a ceasefire without hostage releases, Israel found itself stalled. Recent days saw the IDF hold fire despite intelligence of looming Gaza-based attacks, a restraint ordered to preserve fragile talks. When those collapsed, the overnight barrage began—coupled with long-delayed preemptive strikes—unleashing a wave of destruction that left Khan Younis scarred by dawn. Security sources now confirm Israel is back to “negotiating under fire,” a tactic that could widen the offensive if it fails to free captives.

Inside Israel’s security establishment, the decision wasn’t seamless. Officials candidly told political leaders the operation might endanger hostages—a concern voiced for weeks—yet endorsed it when diplomacy hit a wall. “We’re managing contacts amidst the chaos,” one source said, hinting at parallel efforts to secure a deal. The IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson urged residents of Beit Hanoun, Kharbat Khazaa, and Abasan to evacuate, a logistical chess move to protect civilians while keeping military options open.

The timing aligns with a rare geopolitical window. Washington, striking Yemen concurrently, offers tacit support, while Hezbollah—weakened and clashing with Syria’s new regime on the Lebanon border—poses less of a threat. Still, security analysts caution that other fronts might rally behind Hamas, testing Israel’s multi-front resilience. The operation’s scale reflects confidence, but also a gamble: if hostages aren’t freed, the next phase could be broader—and bloodier.

Yet a domestic wrinkle complicates the picture. As the Kirya bunker hums with activity—Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar steering the effort alongside Zamir—plans to oust Bar at an upcoming cabinet meeting have sparked unease. Bar’s role, managing intelligence on Hamas’s next moves, is pivotal; the political push to fire him now raises questions about priorities at a critical juncture.

Israel’s strategy hinges on adaptability. For a nation that’s long melded military might with diplomatic grit, this operation is both a test and a statement—one that could reshape Gaza, and the hostage crisis, in unpredictable ways.

Channel 12 contributed to this article.