Is Israel going back to war? Hamas is preparing crazily

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has been urging political leadership to secure a deal quickly, emphasizing deteriorating conditions for hostages. While military officials believe pausing ground operations for hostage releases would be strategically viable, contingency plans for limited military actions aimed at pressuring Hamas back to negotiations are already approved.

Meanwhile, intelligence reports suggest Hamas is actively preparing for renewed conflict by recruiting and training militants, reorganizing battalions, and installing camera networks throughout Gaza to monitor IDF movements. The group is reportedly repurposing unexploded Israeli ordnance for improvised explosive devices.

At the same time, Hamas negotiators prepare to travel to Cairo for critical talks on extending the ceasefire agreement with Israel.

In a related development, senior Hamas leadership abroad has taken a hardline position against US-backed proposals for Gaza's future. Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas' external operations, has explicitly rejected President Donald Trump's Gaza relocation plan while doubling down on the group's commitment to armed resistance.

Speaking at an event for released Hamas prisoners in Egypt, Mashaal declared that Palestinian rights "will be drawn up on the battlefield, not determined in foreign capital cities." A video of his remarks, translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), shows Mashaal categorically rejecting any solution that would involve Palestinian relocation, disarmament, or externally imposed governance.

"The people of Palestine will only be governed by themselves. No political regime will be imposed upon the people of Palestine. The weapons of the people will not be taken from them, so long as they are under occupation," Mashaal stated in the video published on Hamas' Telegram channel.

The timing of Mashaal's comments adds another layer of complexity to the upcoming negotiations in Cairo, where a Hamas delegation is expected to arrive within the next 48 hours at Egypt's invitation. These talks aim to revive stalled ceasefire negotiations and address the proposal presented by US Special Envoy Steve Whitkoff.

Regional Implications and Trump's Plan

Mashaal claimed that the threat extends beyond Gaza and Judea and Samaria, warning that "Egypt is in danger, and so are Jordan and Saudi Arabia," referencing concerns about potential relocation of Palestinians to neighboring Arab states.

President Trump's Gaza plan, outlined during a recent press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, proposed American oversight of Gaza's reconstruction following the conflict, with local residents potentially relocating to countries such as Jordan and Egypt. This plan has faced unanimous rejection from Arab nations, which have instead endorsed an Egyptian reconstruction proposal carrying a $53 billion price tag.

In recent days, Trump appears to have softened his position, telling reporters during a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin that "Nobody's expelling any Palestinians." However, Mashaal's comments indicate that Hamas leadership remains deeply suspicious of any externally brokered solution.

Mashaal's rhetoric explicitly glorifies armed resistance, stating: "Without October 6 [1973], Sinai would not have returned [to Egypt], and without October 7 [2023], we will not take Palestine back. It is the path of Jihad and resistance that can take one's homeland back, restore honor and freedom, and liberate the prisoners."

This stance directly contradicts the diplomatic approach being pursued through the Cairo negotiations, where Egyptian mediators hope to extend phase one of the existing hostage deal or potentially initiate phase two.

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem has already criticized US Envoy Witkoff's approach, claiming that "threats of the US envoy do not serve the implementation of the agreement and further complicate matters." According to Qassem, negotiations have stalled primarily due to "the right-wing government's position, which fears committing to the second phase" of the deal.

Critical Days Ahead

As diplomatic and military preparations continue on both sides, the sharp contrast between Mashaal's rhetoric and the goals of the Cairo negotiations highlights the enormous challenges facing mediators attempting to secure a lasting ceasefire.

Hamas prepares for renewed hostilities

Hamas is taking advantage of the ceasefire to plant explosive devices wherever possible and is preparing for the possibility that the IDF will resume operations at full strength. Reserve soldiers serving in the sector describe how Hamas operates continuously throughout each day.

"Israel is in the worst situation it has ever been in vis-à-vis Hamas," says a military source, adding, "We've been in a non-combat situation for almost two weeks. The continuation of the ceasefire while Hamas isn't returning hostages doesn't ease the hostages' situation—on the contrary, Hamas is working to arm itself and reorganize for the next round of fighting. It's unclear how we're sitting idly by and allowing Hamas to accumulate strength and capabilities that will be used against IDF forces entering Gaza."

Concerning Activities at the Border

The IDF is concerned about what's happening at the Gaza border. Reserve soldiers serving in the sector describe how Hamas operates throughout each day, mining and placing explosive devices along routes and areas where the IDF might operate. The group is booby-trapping buildings and tunnel entrances to harm maneuvering forces, while simultaneously monitoring and collecting extensive intelligence on IDF forces. Hamas is studying the routine of Israeli troops and appears to be preparing its own attack plan against forces in the field.

Limited IDF Response

The IDF has refrained from acting against Hamas. Only in isolated cases does it conduct airstrikes against cells identified as planting explosives or launching drones. The IDF's current activity is minimal, allowing Hamas to exploit the non-combat situation to rebuild itself. Military officials assess that Hamas will enter the next campaign stronger and much better prepared than it was before the ceasefire. The current fighting pause, say IDF sources, is providing Hamas with breathing room.

Reserve soldiers report that beyond planting explosives, Hamas operatives are observing and gathering intelligence on Israeli forces, learning the troops' operational routines, the security patterns of defensive positions, and testing the operational alertness of the forces. Just this past weekend, Hamas sent a 4-year-old child to one of the IDF positions to test the response and vigilance of the soldiers.

Military Constraints

Soldiers say they avoid attacking militants because the IDF is operating under a ceasefire policy. The Air Force conducts targeted strikes against individual militants or cells identified as planting explosives or operating drones, but these represent a negligible number of operations compared to the scale of Hamas activity in the field. The IDF believes the political leadership is hesitant to act against Hamas.

The assessment is that a robust operation to dismantle Hamas would require a massive entry of numerous divisions into Gaza, and the IDF might need to remobilize tens of thousands of reserve soldiers. Military sources say the current situation is the most complex, and continuing operations in this format could endanger many soldiers' lives.

Israel National News and Maariv contributed to this article.