U.S. threatens to cut military aid to Egypt if it doesn't get on board with Trump's Gaza vision

The United States has formally warned Egypt of impending cuts to its military aid, set to begin in 2026, amid a deepening rift over President Donald Trump’s vision for the Gaza Strip, according to Egyptian diplomatic sources cited by the pro-Qatari outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The move underscores mounting tensions between Washington and Cairo, as Egypt steadfastly rejects Trump’s undisclosed Gaza plan—a stance that has reportedly triggered threats of American sanctions and a potential recalibration of a decades-long strategic alliance.

The warning, delivered to Cairo by U.S. officials, did not specify the exact percentage of the reduction, with diplomats noting that the figure will be finalized after internal consultations within the Trump administration. Egypt, a cornerstone recipient of $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid since the 1979 Camp David Accords, now faces a shift in a partnership that has bolstered its military modernization and cemented its role as a regional mediator—most notably in maintaining peace with Israel. The news follows reports last month in Arab media of Egyptian outrage over perceived U.S.-Israeli designs on Gaza, with Cairo officially “closing the door” on cooperation, signaling a rare public break with Washington.

Egypt’s Gaza Vision vs. Trump’s Plan

The escalation stems from a clash over Gaza’s future, a strip of 2.3 million Palestinians. Trump’s blueprint remains opaque—rumored to involve Israeli security control and limited Palestinian autonomy, per U.S. leaks cited by Axios—Egypt unveiled its own roadmap at an Arab leaders’ emergency summit earlier this month. Hosted with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, the summit endorsed Cairo’s plan, which rejects Palestinian displacement—a non-negotiable for Egypt given its Rafah border—and emphasizes reconstruction, self-determination, and a phased return of Palestinian Authority (PA) governance from Ramallah.

Egypt’s proposal sidesteps demands for Hamas’s disarmament, a sticking point in U.S.-Israeli talks, instead advocating a political process with “confidence-building” measures between Palestinians and Israel. Cairo and Amman would train Palestinian police for deployment in Gaza, while a six-month technocratic committee—independent experts under PA oversight—would manage the Strip’s transition. Seven temporary housing zones would shelter displaced Gazans, and UN Security Council-backed international forces could stabilize the enclave pending broader agreement.

The plan unfolds in three stages:

“Recovery Phase”: Six months, $3 billion—clearing rubble, erecting interim housing, and kickstarting Palestinian-led rebuilding.

“Phase A” Reconstruction: Two years, $20 billion—constructing 200,000 housing units to rehouse families.

“Phase B” Reconstruction: Two-and-a-half years, $30 billion—building an airport and 200,000 more homes, aiming for long-term viability.

A Strategic Standoff

The U.S. warning, per the Egyptian diplomat in Washington, ties directly to Cairo’s refusal to align with Trump’s vision. Egypt fears any plan ceding Israeli dominance in Gaza could destabilize its Sinai border, where it’s battled ISIS affiliates since 2014, or force it to absorb refugees, straining an economy already reeling from 30% inflation (World Bank, 2024). Photos of Egyptian tanks massed at Rafah, published by AP, signal Cairo’s readiness to enforce its stance, a posture that has irked Trump’s team as he pushes to reshape Middle East alliances in his second term.

Last month, Arab media reported U.S. threats of sanctions if Egypt didn’t bend—a blunt tactic echoing Trump’s 2018 aid freeze to Pakistan over counterterrorism disputes. Cairo’s response? A diplomatic wall. “Egypt has shut down discussions,” an Al-Quds Al-Arabi source claimed, reflecting frustration with what it sees as U.S.-Israeli overreach. The summit’s resolutions doubled down on this defiance.

Aid at Stake

Since 1979, U.S. aid has equipped Egypt with F-16 jets, M1 Abrams tanks, and missile systems, underpinning its military edge and a peace treaty that’s held for 46 years. A cut—however symbolic—risks chilling ties at a time when Trump eyes Egypt as a linchpin in his broader Arab-Israeli normalization push, building on the Abraham Accords. Yet Cairo’s leverage isn’t trivial: its mediation in Gaza ceasefire talks, including the November 2023 hostage deal, remains vital, and its 1,200-kilometer border with Gaza gives it physical sway no aid package can override.

The exact scope of the 2026 reduction awaits U.S. deliberations, but the signal is clear: Trump’s administration, sworn in January 20, 2025, with a GOP-controlled Congress, isn’t bluffing. For Egypt, the choice looms—yield to Washington’s Gaza gambit or gamble on Arab solidarity and its own resolve.

Kann News contributed to this article.