Hamas stokes Jerusalem tensions ahead of Ramadan, raising fears of new violence

As the Muslim holy month of Ramadan looms this weekend, a volatile brew of religious fervor, political maneuvering, and historical grievance is simmering in Jerusalem, where Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, is rallying its supporters for a showdown over the Al-Aqsa Mosque. On Thursday, Harun Nasser al-Din, head of Hamas’s shadowy “Jerusalem Office” and currently abroad, issued a fiery call for “full confrontation against the occupation’s incursions,” urging an uprising to thwart what he described as Israel’s “Judaization and expulsion” schemes. His words, echoed by a senior Hamas official’s plea for “resistance in all its forms,” have stoked fears of terrorist attacks in the holy city, just as delicate ceasefire talks in Gaza teeter on the edge of progress or collapse.

The rhetoric comes amid a week of escalating friction over Israeli police recommendations to cap the number of worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, atop the Temple Mount, at 10,000 during Ramadan’s Friday prayers—a sharp reduction from last year’s 120,000 under heavy security. Hamas has seized on the proposal, branding it a “dangerous escalation” and a strike against Muslim freedom of worship at a site revered as Islam’s third holiest. “All plans and schemes will be shattered by the escalation of the resistance,” Mr. Nasser al-Din declared, tying the restrictions to broader accusations of Israeli demolitions of illegal structures in East Jerusalem, which he painted as part of a “malicious” plot to displace Palestinians.

For Jerusalemites, the echoes of past Ramadans are impossible to ignore. In April 2022, riots erupted on the Temple Mount as Palestinians clashed with Israeli police, a scene captured in stark images of tear gas and stone-throwing that spiraled into rocket fire from Gaza.

The site has long been a tinderbox, its sacred stones bearing the weight of competing national narratives. Last year, despite the Gaza war’s shadow, prayers proceeded without major incident, a tense calm enforced by thousands of Israeli officers. Now, with Hamas’s latest warnings, that fragile peace feels perilously thin.

The group’s rhetoric is not merely bluster. Overnight, as part of a fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza, 642 Palestinian prisoners were released, including some sent to East Jerusalem—a move that concluded the first phase of an agreement returning 33 hostages, eight of them declared dead.

Hamas spokesman Abd al-Latif al-Qanoua, speaking to Al-Araby television on Thursday morning, signaled openness to extending this phase or merging it with a second, but only under strict conditions: a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. “The first phase has been completed, and we upheld our commitments despite Israel’s stalling,” he said.

Israeli officials are bracing for the worst. The security establishment’s proposed limits—allowing only West Bank men over 55, women over 50, and children under 12, with prior approval—reflect a calculus hardened by past violence and the ongoing seven-front war, including operations in the West Bank.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to rule definitively, though last year he overruled far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s push for a near-total ban, wary of igniting a broader conflagration.

Yet Hamas’s call for “resistance in all its forms”—a phrase historically linked to rocket attacks, stabbings, and bombings—casts a long shadow. Mr. Nasser al-Din’s reference to “Judaization” nods to ultranationalist Jewish groups who seek to pray at the Temple Mount, a practice forbidden under a decades-old status quo but increasingly tolerated by Israeli police.

The ceasefire’s next steps hang in the balance. If extended, Ramadan could coincide with further hostage releases, a prospect that might temper unrest—or inflame it, should talks falter. Hamas’s conditions for a permanent peace clash with Israel’s vow to eradicate the group, a gulf that mediators in Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have struggled to bridge.

For now, Jerusalem’s Old City braces for Friday, when the first Ramadan prayers will test whether this month brings solace or strife.

Israel Hayom contributed to this article.