Will Stage 2 of the Israel-Gaza Ceasefire happen?

The Israel-Gaza ceasefire, which began on January 19, 2025, has completed its first phase—a six-week period aimed at halting hostilities, releasing 33 Israeli hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick) in exchange for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners, and facilitating humanitarian aid into Gaza.

This phase, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, has seen the release of all six living hostages scheduled for this stage by February 22, alongside the remains of four deceased hostages on February 20, with four more due next week. Over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners have been freed, and aid has surged, though not always at the agreed-upon levels.

Now, with the first phase concluded, attention turns to Stage 2: a potential permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining living male hostages (civilian and military), further prisoner swaps, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. But will it happen?

The possibility hinges on a tangle of political wills, mutual distrust, and logistical realities. Negotiations for Stage 2 formally began this week in Cairo, with Israel and Hamas engaging indirectly through mediators. Hamas has signaled readiness to release all remaining captives—estimated at 58, with 34 presumed dead—in one batch, provided Israel commits to a lasting truce and a complete pullout from Gaza.

Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s acting Gaza chief, emphasized this stance on February 18, rejecting any deal that disarms or removes Hamas from the Strip. Meanwhile, Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, insist that Hamas cannot remain a military or governing force in Gaza, a condition underscored by Tourism Minister Haim Katz on February 18: “We will not accept the continued presence of Hamas or any other terrorist organization in Gaza.” This fundamental clash—Hamas’s survival versus Israel’s security—casts a long shadow over Stage 2’s feasibility.

Progress so far offers cautious hope. The first phase held despite hiccups—Hamas briefly paused releases on February 10, citing Israel’s delays in allowing mobile homes and sufficient aid trucks (8,500 entered versus the pledged 12,000 by mid-phase), while Israel accused Hamas of withholding a civilian hostage on January 25.

These disputes were resolved swiftly through the Cairo verification mechanism, and by February 13, Netanyahu relented, permitting caravans and exceeding daily aid quotas to catch up.

Yet, Stage 2’s stakes are higher. It requires Israel to abandon strategic positions like the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt—a sticking point Netanyahu has historically deemed non-negotiable—and cede control over Gaza’s future governance. Hamas, in turn, must trust that Israel won’t resume hostilities once all hostages are freed, a leap given the group’s view of the October 7, 2023, attack as a resistance milestone it won’t disavow.

External pressures add complexity. U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2025 and claims credit for reviving the talks, has met with Netanyahu to discuss Stage 2, but his erratic statements—suggesting Gaza’s inhabitants be expelled—have unnerved Palestinians and mediators alike. Qatar and Egypt, keen to secure a “sustainable calm,” have offered verbal assurances to Hamas that negotiations won’t stall, yet lack the leverage to enforce Israel’s compliance.

Netanyahu faces domestic pushback from far-right coalition partners like Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have threatened to collapse his government if the war ends without Hamas’s eradication. On the flip side, hostage families and a war-weary Israeli public crave closure, while Gaza’s 2 million residents, grappling with 70% infrastructure loss, desperately need reconstruction—a Stage 3 promise contingent on Stage 2’s success.

If talks remain “constructive,” as Katz suggested Israel might extend the truce, a deal could emerge—perhaps a pared-down version where Hamas releases hostages and Israel withdraws partially, deferring thornier issues like demilitarization.

But distrust runs deep. Hamas fears a repeat of Israel’s past rejections, like Netanyahu’s July 2024 insistence on retaining the Philadelphi Corridor, contradicting earlier proposals. Israel suspects Hamas will regroup if given breathing room, a fear stoked by the group’s staged release ceremonies flaunting its control. Without ironclad guarantees—unlikely from a divided Israeli cabinet or a battered Hamas—Stage 2 could falter, reverting to a tense stalemate or worse, renewed conflict.

So, will it happen? Maybe—if both sides bend just enough, and mediators muscle through the gaps.