A poll conducted for the YouTube channel Mechonat HaEmet or The Truth Machine by veteran pollster Rafi Smith and published today (Thursday) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition and Benny Gantz's opposition in a dead heat, 55-55.
If the election were held today, Likud would receive 26 seats, Yisrael Beytenu 16, State Camp 16, Yesh Atid 12, Democrats 9, Shas 9, Otzmah Yehudit 8, UTJ 7, Religious Zionism 5, Ra'am 5, Hadash-Ta'al 5.
Balad and New Right would not pass the electoral threshold.
Netanyahu's coalition would thus receive 55 seats.
The opposition camp would receive the same, as at least Yisrael Beytenu, a key partner in the opposition, has ruled out forming a coalition with Ra'am, and other opposition leaders have ruled out a coalition with Ra'am if the party was necessary to get to a majority of 61 votes.
The Arab parties Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al would thus have ten seats and hold the balance of power in the Knesset.
This is a major comeback for Netanyahu, whose Likud party regularly polled in the mid-teens in the months following October 7, as many Israelis blamed the government for the failure to defend against the Hamas attack on its citizens and soldiers and the kidnapping of around 250 people.
Meanwhile, the poll shows Benny Gantz's State Camp party reaching a nadir, compared to the polls in the months after October 7 showing his party in the high 30s and even reaching 40 on occasion. Now, he is neck and neck with Avigdor Liberman's hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party.
The major wild card now is whether a new center-right party led by Naftali Bennet would truly scramble the map and poach enough of Netanyahu's voters to give the opposition 61 votes without Ra'am, or whether it will collapse as Gantz's party has by the time of the election.
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