The political calculus for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opposition has changed dramatically since October 7, and now requires a total break from their old coalition partner, Mansour Abbas' Ra'am party, according to political commentator Amit Segal.
Previously, Ra'am served as the key partner to forming a "blocking" coalition of 60 votes to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government with 61 votes and he faithfully served as the bulwark of the narrow Bennet-Lapid "change government."
Abbas sought to separate himself from the more overtly pro-Palestinian Ayman Odeh and instead work for his constituents. Even after October 7, he condemned the actions and expressed sympathy for the hostages and for the victims of the massacre. However, other members of his party were not so favorable, with one even denying that there was any rape or sexual assault on that day.
At least some of the leaders of opposition parties have now ruled out sitting with Ra'am in a coalition, at least one in which Ra'am provides the votes that get the opposition to 61.
The problem is that most polls in the last few months show the odds of a majority without Ra'am being slim and perhaps non-existent.
So now, according to Segal, they are changing tack: they will now boycott both Arab parties and work to join with a Bennet-led new party in the hope of poaching enough of Netanyahu's coalition voters to win an outright majority for themselves.
This requires working to discourage Arab voters from going to the polls at all - for Arab parties or anyone else - in the hope that the remaining voter pool will be amenable enough for a new "change government" without any non-Zionist partners.
The question then is how Netanyahu, whose coalition and especially his party has recovered from the nadir of the months following October 7, will respond to this new political threat.
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