Hamas' armed forces have suffered serious blows since the start of the war on October 7, losing at least over 17,000 soldiers and commanders, most of their senior leadership, and much of their arsenal, money and infrastructure. Their ability to threaten Israel with raids, let alone a massive attack like October 7 has been seriously reduced.
However, according to Ynet reporter Yoav Zitun, Hamas still poses a serious security threat to Israel for a series of reasons.
Hamas still has two whole battalions in the Neusirat area which the IDF did not fight with on the ground due to the presence of hostages in that area.
Furthermore, it still has thousands of terrorists and hundreds of new recruits, two experienced brigade commanders, and dozens of as yet undiscovered tunnels. Furthermore, Hamas has reportedly rebuilt itself in Gaza City and Khan Yunis.
Hamas still has effective control of the population of two million Gazans, which can be used not only as human shields in any future conflict but also as a source for extortion for money and resources and fodder for draftees and volunteers.
On the other hand, the IDF has almost completely finished the buffer zone within the Gazan side of the border, but it has not eliminated all the tunnels directed towards the border, which will likely be expanded now that the fighting has come to at least a temporary halt.
The Religious Zionism party is openly considering leaving the government and the coalition if the halt is more than temporary, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has repeatedly demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provide him assurances that Israel will restart the war once the first phase of the war ends.
The fate of the hostage deal in general remains unclear as the Prime Minister's Office claims that Hamas has reneged on key parts of the agreement.
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