Benjamin Netanyahu's Nightmare: Will Itamar Ben Gvir bring down the government?

The proposed Hamas hostage deal isn't just about prisoner exchanges – it could have much bigger ramifications than that. Here's why.

Far-right coalition partners are threatening to upend Prime Minister Netanyahu's government if the deal proceeds, potentially forcing Israel into new elections amid its most significant military operation in decades.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich dropped a political bombshell Wednesday, declaring he would exit the government unless Israel commits to fully reoccupying Gaza after the proposed ceasefire. His Religious Zionist Party, along with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party, vehemently oppose the deal's terms, which include withdrawing IDF forces from key positions and allowing Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza.

The deal's controversial terms include the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including some serving life sentences, a partial withdrawal of IDF forces within Gaza, and the establishment of a security "mechanism" to oversee the return of Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza. These concessions have sparked fierce debate within the coalition.

While the deal appears to have enough support to pass even without these far-right parties, their departure could trigger a broader coalition crisis. If they choose to vote for dissolving the Knesset, Israel could find itself heading to elections while implementing a controversial ceasefire agreement.

After intensive discussions with Netanyahu over the past two days, Smotrich made his position clear: "The deal that will be presented to the government is both bad and dangerous for Israel's national security." He argues it "undermines many of the achievements of the war" and could "cost us dearly in blood," while deal supporters emphasize the moral imperative of returning the hostages.

Smotrich is demanding specific assurances, including the IDF's continued operation in Gaza post-deal to achieve the war's original goals of dismantling Hamas's military and governing capabilities. He's particularly focused on ensuring a return to higher-intensity fighting and IDF control over humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza.

Netanyahu now faces a precarious balancing act: securing the release of Israeli hostages while preventing his coalition from unraveling. For the deal to proceed, it must pass votes in both the National Security Cabinet and the government plenum. While it currently has sufficient support to pass both hurdles, the political aftershocks could reshape Israel's government at a critical moment in the war.

For many observers, this political drama exposes a fundamental question facing Israeli leadership: Can the current coalition survive the compromises necessary for hostage recovery, or will the price of bringing them home include the government itself?

JPost contributed to this article.