With just ten days until Donald Trump's January 20 deadline for Hamas to release remaining hostages, details are emerging about how the President-elect's dramatic "gates of hell" ultimatum could materialize into concrete action.
"If the hostages are not released before January 20, 2025, the date I take office as President of the United States, there will be hellish consequences in the Middle East," Trump declared. "Those responsible will suffer more than anyone has ever suffered in U.S. history."
Leading Israeli political commentator Amit Segal outlines two primary mechanisms available to Trump: humanitarian aid leverage and territorial considerations. Increasing bombardments or threatening displacement would be ineffective, Segal argues, as these have been normalized over decades of conflict.
The humanitarian aid lever appears most immediate and potent. Current aid includes massive food shipments and substantial fuel supplies, which critics argue help preserve Hamas's control. While the Biden administration has insisted on maintaining aid flows for 15 months - even after Secretary of State Blinken's early war promise to halt aid if diverted to Hamas - Trump could authorize delivery only through IDF or private contractors. This restructuring could potentially destabilize Hamas within weeks by affecting their ability to pay salaries and maintain control over the civilian population.
The territorial option presents another significant pressure point. Segal points to Trump's 2020 "Deal of the Century," which recognized the Golan annexation and considered sovereignty over Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Similar recognition of Israeli claims in northern Gaza could send powerful regional messages about terrorism's costs.
On the diplomatic front, Trump could exert unprecedented pressure on regional actors:
- Qatar's economy depends heavily on U.S. trade, with the American Central Command base essentially guaranteeing its security
- Egypt recently received approval for $5 billion in military aid, including tanks, aircraft, and ammunition
- Turkey, still hosting Hamas leaders, risks increased tariffs, NATO isolation, and other sanctions
Meanwhile, hostage negotiations continue in Qatar without substantial progress. Palestinian sources report ongoing disagreements over post-war Gaza governance, with Fatah rejecting Hamas's December proposal for technocratic committee management. A recent Fatah delegation to Cairo proposed instead a "relief committee" headed by a Palestinian Authority minister.
The language of war termination remains contentious. Israeli negotiators have proposed terms for "permanent cessation of military operations and all aggressive activity," but militant groups view this as evasive without explicitly stating "end of war."
Trump's ultimatum comes as military analysts suggest only several dozen Hamas fighters remain in the Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun areas, operating from underground infrastructure and conducting occasional surface attacks. However, this guerrilla warfare strategy has proven challenging for IDF forces and continues to exact casualties.
Kikar HaShabbat contributed to this article.
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