Rebuilding Israel's North after Lebanon war to take as long as 5 years

This insight was shared with The Jerusalem Post during a tour of the North. Despite over a month having passed since the ceasefire on November 26, few have returned, and towns like Manara, which suffered heavily, remain in a similar state. Kfar Yuval and other villages remain completely abandoned, while Kfar Giladi and several nearby towns are seeing only a small trickle of returnees, as their infrastructure sustained less severe damage.

A significant hurdle remains: most families, especially those with children, won’t consider returning until after the school year. Thus, even in the best-case scenario, these towns will remain ghost towns for another seven to nine months.

The key question arises: how many residents truly wish to return? Some believe Hezbollah will violate the ceasefire shortly after it expires, launching what might be considered "small" aerial attacks. Yet, these seemingly minor actions can still prove deadly to residents. Others predict Hezbollah will delay its next attack while rebuilding its rocket arsenal, but most are certain it will strike again.

Kiryat Shmona’s spokesman, Doron Shneper, emphasized that “after 15 months, the war is still ongoing, and the residents are still kept from their homes.” He expressed the need for complete security and victory, not just a ceasefire. While the IDF has killed 25 Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire, Shneper asserted that it’s not about killing Hezbollah members but about ensuring the group no longer exists. "We cannot have another October 7," he said, referring to the deadly attack by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern region.

When discussing the progress of government-funded rebuilding efforts in Kiryat Shmona and other towns like Shlomi, Shneper argued that it’s better to wait until true security is achieved before rebuilding, fearing that new structures could be destroyed again. In Metulla, for instance, out of 650 structures, 100 were directly hit by Hezbollah rockets, and approximately 400 sustained indirect hits. As a result, over 75% of the buildings are not in a condition to be reoccupied.

Additionally, Metulla faces a severe lack of proper safe rooms. Of the 39 residences scheduled to receive new safe rooms before the war began, only 16 were completed, and two were destroyed by Hezbollah rockets. Since the war began, Hezbollah has launched 1,600 rockets and mortars, as well as 450 anti-tank missiles, targeting Metulla. Local security chief Doron Mano reported that many homes, including Zami Ravid’s, experienced multiple hits during a barrage on September 19, destroying parts of the building.

While some residents, like Sarah Caspi, have returned temporarily to check on their homes, the overall sentiment is one of uncertainty. Caspi’s residence, though less damaged than others, has lost significant value, and none of her children wish to return. The presence of large Hezbollah weapon caches close by has further shaken her confidence in the region's safety.

Kiryat Shmona’s situation is less dire, with approximately 400 of 7,000 structures directly hit—about 6%. However, this still amounts to a significant number of buildings, many of which are large and complex. Engineer Shimon Amsalem shared that several schools and public buildings have also been heavily damaged. The Nehemia Mall, a key commercial area, has sustained a hole in its ceiling, though some essential stores, like pharmacies, are still operating.

Towns like Kfar Giladi, which sustained fewer direct hits, have seen a few returnees, with 30 residents and 25 security personnel already back. However, this is still a small fraction of the town's original population of around 1,000 before the war.

In conclusion, while some residents are cautiously optimistic about returning in the coming months, the overall situation remains grim. The north will need a long, complex, and creative rebuilding effort. Many are unsure if they will ever return, having started new lives elsewhere during the 14-month conflict. If Israel intends to revive its northern border communities, it will require substantial time and resources, with recovery likely spanning five years or more.