In the maze-like streets of Damascus, a new flag now flies over government buildings. The man who put it there, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, represents one of the most remarkable transformations in modern Middle Eastern politics: from Al-Qaeda fighter to ISIS militant to self-styled moderate ruler of Syria.
Today, as Julani's forces cement their control over Damascus after toppling Bashar al-Assad's regime, the 42-year-old militant-turned-statesman faces his greatest challenge yet: convincing both his people and the world that his evolution from extremist to moderate is more than just political theater.
"Syria's future will be built on the principle of diversity, not uniformity," Julani declared recently in Aleppo, after his forces took control of Syria's largest city. It's a statement that would have been unthinkable during his days with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and one that highlights the dramatic arc of his political evolution.
From Extremist to Pragmatist
Julani's journey to power follows a winding path through some of the region's most notorious militant groups. In 2012, he broke with ISIS, and by 2016, he had severed ties with Al-Qaeda. Since then, he has positioned himself as an independent force, waging bloody battles against his former allies while building what would become Syria's most disciplined fighting force: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Under his leadership, this organization has evolved from a militant group into a quasi-governmental force. His fighters, once known for their hardline stance, now receive orders to protect Christian and Shiite minorities – a dramatic departure from the sectarian violence that has characterized much of Syria's civil war.
The Question of Authenticity
Yet skepticism about Julani's transformation runs deep. Western analysts and Syrian citizens alike question whether his calls for moderation and reconciliation represent genuine change or strategic calculation. His recent orders protecting religious minorities and forbidding revenge attacks stand in stark contrast to his militant past, raising questions about the durability of his newfound moderation.
"Every revolution needs to grow up," says Dr. Sarah Hassan, a Syrian political analyst speaking via encrypted call. "The question isn't whether Jolani has changed – it's whether that change is deep enough to sustain a stable Syria."
Building a New Syria
As Julani's forces consolidate their control over Damascus, his immediate challenges are both practical and existential. He must maintain order in a fractured nation while convincing Syria's various ethnic and religious groups that they have a place in his vision of the future. His message to Assad's former state employees – "We won't harm you" – suggests an awareness of the need for continuity in basic governance.
The transformation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under his leadership offers some clues to his governing style. The organization has evolved into a structured entity with clear chains of command and a sophisticated political wing. This evolution mirrors Jolani's own journey from militant to aspiring statesman.
The Road Ahead
Today's Damascus is a city holding its breath (along with the rest of the Middle East). The fall of Assad's regime marks the end of an era, but the true test of Julani's leadership lies ahead. His ability to translate military victory into political legitimacy will depend not just on his actions in the coming months, but on whether his proclaimed moderation proves genuine.
For now, Syria stands at a crossroads, with its future tied to the evolution of a man who has already traveled from the extremes of global jihad to the complexities of national leadership.
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