In an article published in the Wall Street Journal, the ceasefire in the north is described as a significant strategic success for Israel, both militarily and politically. In addition to the significant damage suffered by Hezbollah, the article notes Israel's ability to isolate the fighting in the north and prevent the conflict from spreading to other arenas.
The article argues that what 11 months of soft diplomatic attempts by US administration envoys did not succeed in was achieved through Israeli toughness – Hezbollah's agreement to abandon its support for Hamas.
Hezbollah, which joined the offensive on October 8, 2023, and promised to continue until Israel acceded to Hamas' demands, reneged on the ceasefire, which they defined as a "withdrawal under fire."
Despite the achievement, the column warns that the agreement is far from a complete solution. Hezbollah may try to reorganize in southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army has pledged to prevent this within the framework of a U.S.-led oversight mechanism.
Prior to the current round, Hezbollah enjoyed a deterrent position. The column explains: "With an ever-growing arsenal, firing at northern communities and the ability to threaten Tel Aviv with thousands of missiles a day, Hezbollah has managed to deter the Israeli government.
The authors note that the test of the success of the ceasefire depends on the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes. If Hezbollah returns to entrench itself in southern Lebanon, as it did after the 2006 war, Israel's deterrence could be undermined.
"Even the U.S. oversight apparatus could become a double-edged sword," the article warns. "If Hezbollah violates the agreements, Israel's response could be suspended, and the responsibility for this will fall on the United States."
Despite the criticisms, the article concludes: If the agreement survives the 60-day transition period, Israel will find itself in a stronger strategic position: Iran is weakened, Hamas is isolated, and a diplomatic opportunity is open for an agreement with Saudi Arabia. "Israel, which has been investigated and criticized at every step, has managed to reach its strongest strategic position in a decade."
