Iranian analysts are coming to terms with a stark realization: they may have missed their optimal window for attacking Israel by waiting until after the U.S. elections, according to a leading expert.
Benny Sabti, an Iran researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), offered this assessment during a revealing interview with Radio 103FM. "What round are we in now? Iran has essentially become Hamas. We're in cycles with Iran, just like we used to have with Hamas," Sabti explained. "I think they missed their opportunity by not responding before the U.S. election results. They were extremely aggressive in the days leading up to it, especially after those embarrassing satellite images were published, when they realized something drastic had occurred."
The election of Donald Trump appears to have rattled Iranian leadership significantly. "I'm hearing the Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guards expressing fear about potential attacks from Israel and the U.S. It's been a long time since we've heard Iranians admit to being afraid," Sabti noted.
He pointed out a fundamental cultural misunderstanding that shapes Iran's strategic thinking: "The Iranians assume others think like them, which is why they can't comprehend our unity or our return to fighting. In their world, if October 7th had happened to them, they would have accepted it without resistance - that's just how it is. Now they believe they're on a countdown, and any misstep, even two months from now, will trigger a response."
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