Politics, United States

Down to the wire: Trump and Harris now tied in Nate Silver's electoral model

With mail votes coming in and early voting starting in many key states, election prognosticator Nate Silver now has both candidates in a virtual tie.

2024 elections. Illustration. (Photo: QubixStudio/Shutterstock)

With polls showing a tightening race in the key states, electoral prognosticator Nate Silver has updated his predictive model to show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with virtually equal odds of winning the election - 49.7% to 50.1%.

This tie comes as Trump has recovered from a relative polling slump, especially in the key swing states in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

In addition to mail voting, voters are now turning out in early voting in states such as Ohio, Georgia, and elsewhere, with partisans of both sides trying to discern whether trends favor their particular candidate.


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