In a significant shift of power dynamics in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be setting the agenda, while the Biden administration struggles to shape events or defuse regional conflicts. The recent killing of Hezbollah's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Israeli airstrikes has underscored this trend, catching U.S. officials off guard and derailing ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken's intensive shuttle diplomacy during the U.N. General Assembly session, aimed at forging a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, was abruptly undermined by the Israeli strikes in southern Beirut. The Biden administration was reportedly confident in the proposal's success, with a senior official suggesting both parties' agreement was a foregone conclusion.
The escalating tensions are evident in the reported death toll from Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, which has exceeded 1,000 people in just two weeks, according to Lebanese health officials. This aggressive approach has reinforced the administration's fears of a potential chain reaction leading to a wider regional war that could draw in the United States.
President Joe Biden, Pentagon senior leaders, and other high-ranking officials across the administration were reportedly infuriated by the timing of the Israeli operation. The White House statement acknowledged the "measure of justice" in Nasrallah's death but also called for de-escalation through diplomatic means.
Despite repeated U.S. appeals, Netanyahu has pressed ahead with military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, rejecting international criticism of civilian casualties. Since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza last year, more than 41,000 people have died, according to Palestinian health officials.
The Biden administration's attempts to sway Israeli decision-making have largely failed. Even vague threats of scaling back or suspending weapons deliveries have had no concrete impact on Netanyahu's approach. The U.S. continues to send military aid, including 2,000-pound bombs and Hellfire missiles, to Israel.
Complicating matters further, Arab allies remain hesitant to fully support U.S. efforts against Hamas or Hezbollah, fearing backlash from their Muslim populations who view Israel's actions as persecution of Palestinians. This reluctance further complicates U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region.
Israeli officials and Republican critics of Biden believe that striking back at Iran and its proxies is the best way to prevent a wider war, aiming to raise the cost of attacking Israel and force adversaries to recalculate their strategies.
Analysts suggest that the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran have become "ongoing wars of attrition" with no clear diplomatic solutions in sight. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, argues that the only options are containing or deterring adversaries and taking incremental "transactional" steps that do not address the underlying causes of the conflict.
As the situation evolves, it appears that Netanyahu, along with leaders of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah's future head, will be the primary decision-makers shaping the region's future, while the U.S. struggles to exert meaningful influence on the course of events.
NBC contributed to this article.
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