As tensions escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, military experts warn that an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon could face formidable resistance. Hezbollah, often described as the world's most heavily armed non-state paramilitary force, has significantly bolstered its capabilities since its last major conflict with Israel in 2006.
Key details about Hezbollah's current capabilities:
1. Massive missile arsenal: Estimates suggest Hezbollah's stockpile has grown from about 12,000 rockets and missiles in 2006 to approximately 150,000 today. This includes a range of short, medium, and long-range unguided rockets, as well as guided ballistic missiles.
2. Advanced weaponry: Hezbollah has acquired thousands of new missiles and drones from Iran. A standout addition is the Almas guided antitank missile, believed to be a reverse-engineered version of Israel's Spike missile. With a range of about 6.2 miles, the Almas offers greater precision than previous unguided weapons.
3. Improved tactics: Hezbollah fighters gained combat experience in Syria, learning conventional army techniques while fighting alongside Russian and Iranian forces. They've adopted tactics similar to those used by Russia in Ukraine, including launching missile salvos and drone swarms.
4. Drone capabilities: The group has successfully struck Israeli military equipment, including a Sky Dew radar surveillance balloon in May and a Drone Dome anti-drone system in June 2023.
5. Extensive preparation: Reports indicate Hezbollah has expanded its network of tunnels in southern Lebanon, repositioned fighters and weapons, and smuggled in more arms in recent months. A former Hezbollah military officer described southern Lebanon as "like a beehive right now" in terms of military preparations.
Challenges Israel could face in a ground invasion:
1. Terrain advantage: Southern Lebanon's landscape favors Hezbollah's guerrilla tactics. In 2006, Hezbollah fighters embedded themselves in villages, waiting for Israeli forces to approach rather than engaging in open combat.
2. Attrition warfare: Hezbollah would likely aim to draw Israeli forces into a prolonged conflict, similar to Hamas's strategy in Gaza.
3. Precision strikes: The Almas missile gives Hezbollah improved ability to target Israeli armored vehicles. In 2006, Hezbollah's antitank missiles pierced the armor of 20 tanks and killed 24 tank crew members.
4. Overwhelming attacks: Military analysts suggest Hezbollah could launch salvos of missiles and drone swarms to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. They could strike military bases, ports, and the electrical grid.
5. Civilian casualties: Israeli officials anticipate potentially hundreds of casualties if full-scale war erupts. In 2006, Hezbollah launched about 150 rockets a day into northern Israel.
6. Possible antiaircraft capabilities: There were reports in November that Russia's Wagner group planned to give Hezbollah an advanced SA-22 antiaircraft system, though it's unclear if this was delivered.
While Israel maintains superiority in air power and intelligence capabilities, experts caution that a ground invasion of Lebanon would not be a "walk in the park." Retired Israeli Brigadier General Assaf Orion noted, "There's no way we're not getting a bloody nose."
The potential conflict draws comparisons to the 2006 war, which ended in a stalemate after a month of fighting. That conflict resulted in the deaths of 121 Israeli soldiers, more than 40 Israeli civilians, and over a thousand Lebanese people. Any new engagement could prove even more costly given Hezbollah's enhanced capabilities.
At this stage in the game, Israel is going to try to make Hezbollah back down without a ground invasion, however things could change quickly if Hezbollah doesn't get the message.
The Wall Street Journal contributed to this article.
