The official stated, "The notion of entering a war and expecting a favorable outcome without considering the repercussions is misguided. Wars are not simple, and the results are rarely positive."
The official elaborated, "If Israel initiates a war, there may be no homes left to return to afterward, and after significant loss of life, both sides will likely end up with the same agreement the US is promoting at present," as reported by Yedioth Ahronoth.
The official stressed, "You can't start a war under ideal conditions. While Israel's military capabilities in Lebanon are not in question, the consequences of war are devastating. Both sides need to consider the potential fallout."
He also noted that while a war with Hezbollah is not inevitable, a full-scale conflict is not imminent.
"Hezbollah's attacks on Israel are not a reaction to October 7th but began well before that. The US-led negotiations aim to de-escalate tensions and end the conflict, which has become more complicated due to Hezbollah linking its actions to the Gaza war," the official said. He added, "We are trying to avoid escalating the conflict, which could lead to a regional war or worse. Hezbollah is a terror organization, but the negotiations are with the Lebanese government."
The official predicted that a ceasefire in Gaza would facilitate a deal in Lebanon as well. "There is no proposal to transfer Israeli territory to Lebanon. There are 13 points of contention. The negotiations with Lebanon differ from those with Gaza; a ceasefire with Lebanon won't be effective if residents can't return home. A comprehensive agreement is needed to ensure that residents of northern Israel can safely return to their homes."
He further explained, "The only feasible deal involves moving Hezbollah away from the Blue Line and ensuring the Lebanese government takes responsibility. We need to achieve a ceasefire and strengthen Lebanon's state institutions and military. Lebanon has institutions, but they are weak. The situation there is tragic. Lebanon is an incredible country with remarkable people and innovators, but the current conditions are dire. There is an opportunity to establish a safer border between Israel and Lebanon."
