Hezbollah attack on Israel, Hamas motives

Official Claims: How Hezbollah's Attack Will Affect Sinwar's Moves

Former Head of the Hostage and Missing Persons Department in the IDF Intelligence Directorate, Avi Kalo, claims that Hezbollah's attack will create an obstacle to a prisoner exchange deal with Sinwar: "Sinwar sees potential, even if partial, for regional escalation."

Head of Hamas Yahye Sinwar (Photo: Abed Rahim Khatib/flash 90)

In an interview on Radio 103fm today (Sunday), Kalo addressed whether Hezbollah's attack might lead to the final cancellation of a deal for the release of hostages.

"It seems that the tune is repeating. Sinwar identifies potential, even if partial, for regional escalation, and therefore has no reason to rush forward. This is the grand vision, the apocalyptic war, and if this vision gains potential for renewed integration, there is even more reason to take a step back. The importance of the process is its existence rather than the ability to give it content," he argued.

He added, "Hamas is an ideological, jihadist organization, and we see that even around the new red lines set by Israel, it is not quick to yield. This will also be the case in the world of prisoners. Sinwar at least sticks to his principles and worldview, and it is not correct to significantly change his positions."

Kalo further stated, "Ultimately, military leverage, alongside rescue operations, does not seem to bring about real achievements in this context over time. One could argue that the Philadelphi Route is a pressure point because it affects Hamas's oxygen supply, making it a more troubling area for Sinwar. In general, military leverage at this stage probably isn't driving this. The gaps between the sides are still significant, and in my opinion, it is not correct to link thwarting the attack on Hezbollah to the negotiations. This was a necessary event."

In conclusion, Kalo clarified: "Potentially, the likelihood of escalation has increased, but the logic is a preventive one for both sides."


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