Report: This Data Caused Iran to Back Down

In light of reports that Iran is reconsidering its response to Israel due to fears of a full-scale war, Politico published this morning one of the reasons related to the manner in which Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated on Iranian soil.

According to the report, Iran agreed to reconsider its response, and it is likely that the reaction will be much more moderate than originally planned. One of the arguments used by the Biden administration to persuade the Iranians to issue a measured response was the possibility that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb remotely detonated by Iranian collaborators, rather than by a missile fired from Iranian territory.

The implication of this data is that if Haniyeh was indeed killed by an explosive device rather than a missile launched from Iranian soil, then it is not a severe breach of sovereignty. Additionally, the fact that no civilians were killed as a result of the assassination also helped Tehran to de-escalate from a high-stakes position.