As tensions mount in the Middle East following Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's assassination, experts suggest moderate Sunni states might cooperate with the US and Israel if Iran retaliates. This potential alliance, however, may not evolve into a long-term coalition.
General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), met with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv on Monday, highlighting the region's heightened state of alert. Concurrently, US diplomats are working to de-escalate tensions and secure support from Middle East allies.
President Joe Biden spoke with Jordan's King Abdullah II, emphasizing the need for de-escalation while discussing ways to enhance their strategic partnership. Secretary of State Tony Blinken held calls with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to address diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing regional tensions.
This cooperation isn't unprecedented. Last April, several Arab states, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt, assisted in thwarting an Iranian attack on Israel involving approximately 300 missiles, rockets, and drones. This operation showcased the complex regional dynamics and the capabilities of a US-led coalition under CENTCOM.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, describes the situation as a "delicate dance" for Arab countries. "They don't want to be seen as defending Israel," he explains, "but they have an interest in weakening Iran." These nations recognize Iran as the primary regional threat but must balance this view with domestic public opinion.
Recent diplomatic moves reflect this delicate balance. Jordan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani, to discuss bilateral relations and regional tensions. Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia reportedly asked Iran not to use their airspace for potential attacks on Israel.
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the Research Division in the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, anticipates a response similar to last April's if Iran attacks. He notes that Arab states, also targets of Iran, need to maintain open communication channels while appearing neutral.
The situation remains volatile, with recent incidents including a suspected rocket attack on US soldiers at an Iraqi air base and CENTCOM forces intercepting a Houthi militia UAV attack over the Gulf of Aden.
While some experts see this cooperation as a step towards a broader regional alliance, others urge caution. Guzansky argues, "This is not an alliance... but a coalition of willing countries facing similar threats." He distinguishes this from more permanent alliances like the US-Israel relationship or NATO.
Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and author of three books on Israeli military affairs, sees potential in this cooperation for a broader coalition against radical Islamic terrorism and expansionism. He notes that while the Abraham Accords normalized Israeli relations with some Gulf States and Morocco, there's still potential for creating a more comprehensive military alliance and defense pact.
Asher Fredman, director of the Misgav Institute for National Security, suggests that such collaboration could lead to an enhanced Middle East security architecture encompassing air and missile defense, maritime and cyber security, and R&D. He emphasizes that building such a Western-aligned security architecture should be a key goal for the next US administration.
As the region braces for potential conflict, the nature and extent of Arab states' cooperation with the US and Israel remain uncertain.
* The Jewish Insider contributed to this article.
