As the dust settles on Israel's nine-month war to destroy Hamas, a familiar face has emerged from the shadows of Palestinian politics, offering a potential, if controversial, solution to the Gaza conundrum: Mohammed Dahlan, once a feared security chief who tried to crush Hamas, now finds himself in the unlikely position of being courted by those seeking to chart a path forward for the war-torn strip.
From his luxurious villa in Abu Dhabi, the 62-year-old Dahlan has been quietly maneuvering, shuttling between the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, two key players in Gaza's future. His pitch? A vision for Gaza that echoes the desires of Arab states involved in cease-fire talks and reconstruction plans: a transitional government to administer security and basic services, paving the way for potential parliamentary elections.
It's a far cry from Dahlan's tumultuous past. Born into poverty in Gaza's Khan Younis, he rose through the ranks of Palestinian politics, becoming a close adviser to Yasser Arafat before a falling out with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas led to his exile. Now, his independence from both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority makes him an intriguing prospect for Israeli and American officials seeking a palatable interim leader for Gaza.
The plan currently under consideration would see Dahlan overseeing a Palestinian security force of 2,500 men, working alongside an international contingent as Israeli troops withdraw. It's a delicate balancing act, one that requires threading the needle between Israeli security concerns, Palestinian aspirations, and the complex web of regional interests.
Dahlan's potential return to Gaza's political stage is not without its critics. Among Palestinians, opinions are mixed. A June poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research placed him at around 8% in a hypothetical leadership election, far behind Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Fatah official Marwan Barghouti. Yet for some Gazans, like 37-year-old Fatma Waheed from Deir al-Balah, Dahlan represents a potential escape from the current impasse. "If Dahlan is the one to replace [Hamas], then he is welcome," she says, echoing a sentiment of exhaustion with the status quo.
The international community, too, is divided. While some U.S. officials privately tout Dahlan as a key player in Gaza's future, the Biden administration has publicly backed a revitalized Palestinian Authority taking the reins. Israel, for its part, remains wary, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declining to comment on Dahlan's potential role.
As cease-fire talks inch forward, with negotiators planning to meet in Doha next week, the question of Gaza's governance looms large. Dahlan's ability to speak to Hamas, coordinate with Arab states, and potentially work with Israel makes him a unique figure in a landscape often defined by intractable positions.
Yet the challenges are immense. Rebuilding Gaza, ensuring security, and navigating the competing interests of regional powers would test even the most skilled politician. For Dahlan, it's a high-stakes gamble that could either cement his legacy as a peacemaker or consign him once again to the political wilderness.
Whether he can deliver on that hope remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the next chapter in Gaza's troubled history is about to be written, and Dahlan is poised to play a leading role.
* The Wall Street Journal contributed to this article.
