In the sun-drenched hills of northern Israel, an uneasy quiet belies a growing tension. Gilad Yehudai, a 45-year-old resident of Kibbutz Shamir, walks along a ridge overlooking the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The tranquil landscape masks a precarious reality faced by those living in this volatile region.
"It's already a war," Yehudai tells DW, his voice tinged with concern. "Missiles, drones, fires, alarms all the time." For those in Israel's north, the threat of conflict is not a distant possibility but a daily reality.
Across the border, Lebanon faces its own reckoning. Hassan Nasrallah, the influential leader of Hezbollah, recently delivered a fiery televised speech, warning that his Iranian-backed group would fight "without constraints or rules" if war erupts. Per reports by the BBC, his rhetoric matches an escalating reality on the ground.
But behind this dangerous dance lies a complex web of political motivations and strategic miscalculations, according to Harrison Mann, a former U.S. military intelligence analyst who recently resigned over American support for Israel's actions in Gaza.
"We know specifically that the Israeli prime minister must continue to be a wartime leader if he wants to prolong his political career and stay out of court, so that motivation is there," Mann told The Guardian. He argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival could be a driving force behind the escalation, potentially pushing Israel into a disastrous conflict.
Mann's assessment contradicts the more optimistic view held by some U.S. officials who believe Netanyahu's government understands the dangers of full-scale war with Hezbollah. The former intelligence officer warns that Israel may be underestimating both the destructive capacity of Hezbollah and the potential costs to Israeli civilians.
"They probably have the ability to at least partially overwhelm Israel's air defenses, strike civilian infrastructure around the country, and inflict a level of destruction on Israel that I'm not sure Israel has really ever experienced in its history," Mann cautions.
The human toll of such a conflict would be catastrophic on both sides. In Lebanon's south, a Hezbollah stronghold, an estimated 90,000 residents have already fled. Kameli Hammaid, a 54-year-old seamstress from Meiss El Jabal, shared photos of her family home destroyed by Israeli rockets. "I go to bed and wake up with tears in my eyes ... This is the history of my family."
The strategic implications extend far beyond the immediate region. Mann warns that a full-scale war would likely draw the United States into a wider regional conflict, potentially involving Iran. "The risk of escalation is also going to get much higher," he says, noting that even limited U.S. involvement could have far-reaching consequences.
Yet amidst the tension, life in both countries continues with a surreal normalcy. In Beirut, party posters go up even as residents maintain "grab bags" for quick evacuation. As Raymonda Chamoun, a 35-year-old event organizer, puts it: "If we shut down our lives... the country will stop. We have to keep going."
This resilience is tested by the compounding crises facing Lebanon – from economic collapse to political deadlock. Any war would be catastrophic for a nation already on the brink.
As diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes, both sides maintain a delicate balancing act. Israeli leadership insists security will be restored "one way or another," while Hezbollah officials claim war is "possible but not inevitable."
The coming weeks may prove critical in determining whether cooler heads will prevail or if political calculations and military miscalculations will plunge the region into another devastating conflict. For now, civilians on both sides of the border wait and watch, their lives suspended between an uneasy peace and the looming specter of war.
