Report: 35% decline of Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel

IDF data acquired by Srugim/JFeed show a decline in Hezbollah’s launch capability into Israeli territory.

According to the data, some 2,800 rockets have been fired into Israel from Lebanon. In the last update in January on the 100th day of the war, the number stood at 2,000, meaning 20 a day. In the last 60 days, another 800 rockets were launched, meaning 13 a day. In other words, the number of rockets launched by Hezbollah was cut by 35%.

The Daily Peak is Over, General Trend – Decline

This week saw a peak of Hezbollah launches, with over 130 rockets fired in a number of salvos towards Meron, Kiryat Shemonah, and the Golan Heights in a single day. Despite this, Hezbollah launch numbers remain on the downswing. Northern Command counted many days with zero launches or a single salvo.

For comparison’s sake, Hamas launches by January were about 9,000, a third of them on the first day of the war. Since the beginning of the maneuver, the number has declined sharply, with Hamas managing to launch only a few rockets once a week.

It’s important to note that the IDF only counts rockets which crossed into Israel, not all launches. The rate of failed launches in both Gaza and Lebanon stands at about 10%.

A number of reasons for this decline are evident.

The first is IDF activity aimed at pushing Hezbollah away from the border. If Hezbollah started the war firing short range mortars and rockets at Israel, the IDF’s aggressive efforts on the border pushed them back.

It is also possible that Hezbollah now prefers quality over quantity, focusing its efforts on air force or command bases rather than salvos on civilian settlements which achieve little aside from property damage. The settlements are empty, Iron Dome is intercepting most of the targets, and the “dumb” rockets are achieving little.

Hezbollah has also focused recently on launching drones and rockets, which they hold onto to “respond” to IDF activity deep in Lebanon.

Still, despite the achievement in driving down rocket fire, Hezbollah’s success in forcing the emptying of the north of civilians, with no end in sight, has not yet been reversed.