SHADOW WAR: Why Egypt's elite tank units are raising border tensions with Israel

Satellite imagery and security reports have revealed a substantial increase in Egyptian military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, raising questions about adherence to the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. According to multiple sources familiar with the situation, the deployments significantly exceed the limitations established by the peace agreement.

Recent satellite evidence shows approximately 100 Abrams tanks stationed in El-Arish, an area where such weapons are prohibited under the treaty. Security experts note that three new airfields have been constructed in recent years, while military camps now accommodate 180 battalions - four times the 47 battalions permitted by the treaty. Current troop levels reportedly exceed the treaty-mandated 22,000 soldiers in western Sinai by a factor of four. The construction of new tunnels and infrastructure has also raised concerns among security experts about treaty compliance.

Along the border, Israeli security officials report evolving patterns of weapons smuggling. The IDF has recently acknowledged an increase in drone-based weapons transport, with smugglers utilizing high-speed ATVs on the Israeli side. These smuggling routes, which previously targeted Gaza, have reportedly shifted to new destinations, with weapons being channeled to criminal organizations and the West Bank.

The situation has gained additional diplomatic complexity following President el-Sisi's October 8 statement warning against Israeli operations near southern Gaza. Former Deputy Ambassador to Egypt Ruth Wasserman Lande characterized this as an unusually harsh diplomatic position, marking a significant shift in Egyptian rhetoric.

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit maintains that forces are operating "while respecting the peace agreement." Israeli political and security officials confirm regular monitoring of Egyptian deployments, though prime ministerial approvals for force adjustments are typically granted retroactively. The Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) continues its mandate overseeing demilitarization in the region.

Sources familiar with Israel-Egypt relations indicate that while violations exist, current circumstances are "better than in the past." Israeli border forces report maintaining cautious operations along what remains officially designated as a peaceful border. A former Israeli ambassador to Egypt provides historical context, linking current deployments to Egypt's 2011 security challenges when the country faced threats from ISIS and al-Qaeda elements in Sinai. The former ambassador emphasizes the existence of military coordination mechanisms between the countries and questions whether media attention serves bilateral interests.

Lt. Col. (res.) Eliyahu Dekel, who has monitored compliance with the peace agreement since its signing, notes particular concern about the presence of Abrams tanks, Egypt's premier battle tanks reserved for elite units. The placement of these specific tanks, rather than division-level tanks permitted by the treaty, raises questions about the strategic implications of their deployment.

The IDF continues to maintain enhanced defensive measures along the western border, with adjusted rules of engagement allowing for more effective responses to potential threats while working within the framework of the peace agreement. Israeli authorities are actively monitoring the new smuggling patterns, gathering intelligence as they adapt to these emerging security challenges.

Israel Hayom contributed to this article.