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Will it lead to WW3?

US intel reveals Israel's bold plan for Iran's nuclear facilities – Here's what you need to know

Israel believes the window of opportunity for such a complex operation with so many risks is closing, so if it's going to strike, it needs to do it soon.

USS Carrier Gerald R Ford
Photo: MC1 William Spears, navy.mil

According to recent US intelligence assessments, Israel is making preparations for a possible military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities, potentially within months. The operation would require significant US support in terms of armaments and logistics, raising questions about the White House's position on such an initiative.

Multiple US defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, indicate that any Israeli military action would be contingent upon American support, particularly in areas of aerial refueling, intelligence gathering, and specific armaments necessary for targeting fortified facilities.

The potential operation centers on Iran's Fordow and Natanz facilities, with a possible timeline extending into the first half of 2025. The assessments come amid reports of Iran's continued uranium enrichment program and technical advances toward weapons-grade capabilities.

Despite close US-Israel cooperation, there remains one central point of disagreement around the Iranian nuclear issue: While American intelligence experts believe such a strike in Iranian territory would only be temporarily effective and delay Tehran's ability to produce an operational nuclear bomb for months or a year, Israeli defense officials assess that the strike would have a dramatic and destructive impact that would severely affect Iran's ability to achieve a bomb.

"That's the difference between our intelligence assessments and theirs," a former American official was quoted in the Washington Post article.

Technical considerations for any potential operation would need to address Iran's dispersed and fortified facilities. Recent US approval for the sale of bunker-penetrating weapon training kits suggests ongoing preparations for various scenarios. Military analysts note that strike options could include stand-off weapons launched from outside Iranian airspace or direct targeting of facilities.

Trump, Iranian nuclear facilities, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Israeli Air Force flights, Iranian Foreign Minister
Photos: IDF Spokesperson, Shutterstock, Wikipedia

The timing considerations are complex, taking into account regional tensions, including the situation along Israel's borders with Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt. Any military action would likely need to address multiple targets simultaneously, including deeply buried facilities, according to defense experts familiar with the matter.

When approached for comment, both the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and IDF spokesperson declined to respond to these reports. US officials emphasized that discussions remain at the assessment stage, with no final decisions made regarding potential military action.

The reports emerge as Iran displays new ballistic missile capabilities, signaling its deterrence posture. International monitoring agencies continue to track Iran's nuclear program, though access to some facilities remains limited.

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