Is Turkey a military threat to Israel? If so, how?

The fall of Syria to rebel forces supported by Turkey, a country increasingly hostile to Israel, has raised questions about whether and how the latter can now threaten Israel, now that a Turkey-friendly country resides on its northern border.

Over the past several years, Turkish President Erdogan has taken an increasingly hostile tone towards Israel, a tone which only escalated after October 7. Turkey has banned all trade with Israel, and Turkey also joined with South Africa's "genocide" case against Israel at the Hague. Erdogan has even dropped hints of a possible military reckoning with Israel over Gaza. Thus, analysts believe the threat is a serious one.

The Israel-Alma Center, which regularly provides analyses of threats to Israel from countries to the north - specifically Lebanon and Syria - believes that Turkey could indeed pose such a threat in one of two possible ways: indirect support for Syrian forces as an anti-Israel proxy force, and direct use of long-range missiles and drone arsenals.

The Center argues that Turkey may use Syria as a hostile proxy force in much the same way as Iran uses and equips terrorist proxy armies around the Middle East - Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and others - while trying to officially maintain deniability. According to their analysis, this is vital to prevent the United States directly intervening with their NATO partner.

Turkey also possesses an increasingly large arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles, which it may use in the event it desires to clash with Israel over any number of pretexts. However, the Alma Center believes that at present, Turkey currently seeks to hold onto those missiles and is unlikely to hand them over to anyone else.

The option of Turkish ground forces directly moving south from Turkey to the Israeli border to threaten Israel from the north does not seem to be considered a real possibility, according to the analysis, though that may change depending on developments in the region.