Netanyahu VS Shin Bet: A a step toward civil war?

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes forward with his plan to dismiss Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, Israel appears to be on the brink of an unprecedented crisis. This time, the conflict is not just political—it is an all-out battle between the executive branch, the judiciary, and the security establishment, which could determine the country’s future.

Will this crisis fade away like previous ones, with Netanyahu backing down? Or is Israel heading toward an escalation that could destabilize the nation?

Three Camps – Three Conflicting Agendas

The current political turmoil has divided Israel into three main factions:

1. Netanyahu’s camp – includes the police, his hardcore supporters ("Bibistim"), and the religious right (Zionist and ultra-Orthodox communities). 2. The security and centrist bloc – comprising military officials, former PM Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Benny Gantz, who represent a more moderate Centreal-right but politically powerless opposition.

3. The Supreme Court and security institutions – including the Shin Bet, Mossad, the Attorney General, the judiciary, and the left and center-left opposition leaders such as Yair Lapid and Yair Golan - this faction also includes the Histadrot and most banks.

Each of these groups wields different types of power, pursues different strategies, and has contrasting interests.

Netanyahu’s Camp: Government Control vs. Independent Security Forces

Netanyahu still holds political power—his government appoints the Shin Bet chief and controls the police, which could be used to suppress protests. Additionally, he enjoys strong support from the religious right and his loyal base, which will back him in media battles - but this camp does not run to the streets at all usually.

Yet, Netanyahu's real weakness lies in the fact that he does not control the military or security services. The Shin Bet, Mossad, and IDF operate independently (much thanks to him!), and history has shown that Netanyahu frequently backs down when confronted by the Supreme Court and the Attorney General.

The Security and Centrist Bloc: A Potential Kingmaker Without Executive Power

This faction, consisting of Gantz, Lieberman, Bennett, and senior military officials, holds broad public support and strong security credentials. However, they lack the authority to directly influence Netanyahu’s decisions.

Gantz and Lieberman are not part of the coalition, meaning they cannot threaten to collapse the government from within. However, they can rally the public and pressure security officials to oppose Netanyahu's move.

If Netanyahu tries to forcibly remove Ronen Bar—perhaps by using the police—some senior IDF officers might refuse to comply, triggering a command crisis.

The Supreme Court and Security Institutions: The Ultimate Decisive Force?

The Supreme Court, Shin Bet, and Mossad do not operate through political power but through legal authority, intelligence leverage, and international diplomacy. The Shin Bet likely holds classified information on Netanyahu, including sensitive cases like the "Qatar-Gate" scandal, which could be used against him.

While Netanyahu controls the government, the Supreme Court and the Attorney General may block the dismissal of Bar, just as they have blocked previous government actions (also thanks to the power Netanyahu himself has given them). Furthermore, international pressure could influence Netanyahu’s decisions, making it harder for him to push forward unilaterally.

Likely Scenario: Netanyahu Backs Down – Again

The most probable outcome is that the Supreme Court and Attorney General will intervene, forcing Netanyahu to find a way to de-escalate the crisis.

This would not be the first time Netanyahu has had to retreat when faced with strong judicial and security opposition. A possible compromise might involve keeping Ronen Bar in place for a limited time or appointing a successor that satisfies all parties.

Are We Headed for Civil War?

The key question is whether this crisis could escalate into violent clashes between Netanyahu’s supporters and his opponents.

For an actual civil war to break out, the following conditions would need to occur:

At this stage, an actual civil war remains unlikely—but not impossible. If Netanyahu refuses to comply with a Supreme Court ruling and escalates the confrontation, we could see a rebellion among government officials and high-ranking security figures, leading to a constitutional crisis.

Final Thoughts: Another Failed Power Play by Netanyahu?

* The most likely scenario: The Supreme Court will block the dismissal, Netanyahu will back down, and Ronen Bar will remain in office.

* The dangerous scenario: Netanyahu insists on Bar’s removal, protests intensify, and the police crack down aggressively, leading to violent clashes.

* The extreme unlikely scenario: Netanyahu defies the Supreme Court, the police and military fracture, and the country enters a deep constitutional crisis.

In the end, Netanyahu has a track record of backing down when faced with strong institutional pushback. With the Supreme Court, the Shin Bet, and Mossad all aligned against him, it is highly likely that he will once again seek an exit strategy rather than an all-out confrontation and use the Bar affair as a way to show his base that he is still in power yet still as always a powerless victim - as always with him - an act or show.